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Bitcoin's recent volatility has reignited debates over its potential support levels, with analysts clashing over whether the cryptocurrency could fall to $35,000 or stabilize near $55,000. A key argument against the $35,000 scenario centers on technical indicators and historical patterns. Analyst "Sykodelic" argues that
must first achieve a significant price expansion before such a deep retracement is possible, a condition not met in this cycle . Instead, the cryptocurrency's price has held above the lower Bollinger Bands on the monthly chart, a level it has never breached historically, even during past bear markets . This technical floor, combined with Bitcoin's current 31% decline from its October peak of $126,000, suggests a worst-case support of $55,000 if the monthly close dips below the mid-Bollinger Band .Recent market dynamics underscore this divergence. On Dec. 1, 2025, Bitcoin plunged 6% to $85,778 amid a broader
sell-off, with global market capitalization shrinking by $140 billion in a single day . The selloff, driven by risk-off sentiment and leveraged position liquidations, saw altcoins like and drop over 10%, while Bitcoin ETFs briefly reversed the trend with a $70 million inflow after weeks of outflows . This inflow, coupled with a 85% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, has bolstered Bitcoin's appeal as a hedge against traditional asset underperformance .Technical analyses reinforce the $55,000 support thesis. Bollinger Band models predict a 90% probability of Bitcoin trading between $64,936 and $85,752 over the next three months, with the cryptocurrency currently hovering near the midline
.
Institutional adoption further complicates bearish projections. The Texas state government's $5 million allocation to BlackRock's IBIT ETF and Abu Dhabi sovereign funds tripling their Bitcoin ETF holdings highlight growing recognition of crypto as a reserve asset
. Nasdaq's recent expansion of options trading for IBIT by 40× has also deepened liquidity, signaling Bitcoin's integration into mainstream finance . Meanwhile, Grayscale's filing for a Zcash ETF underscores continued innovation in the space, even as the broader market grapples with uncertainty .The market's structural resilience, however, remains a wildcard. While Bitcoin ETFs and macroeconomic tailwinds provide a floor, leveraged positions and short-term volatility could yet trigger deeper corrections. For now, the consensus among technical analysts and institutional players appears to favor a $55,000 bottom, dismissing the $35,000 narrative as an overreach
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