Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin 54% Surge Invalidates 4-Year Cycle Theory, Institutional Influence Cited

The Bitcoin 4-year cycle theory, a long-standing framework for predicting market trends through halving events and whale-driven accumulation patterns, has been declared obsolete by Ki Young Ju, CEO of on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant. The shift follows Ju’s misstep in April 2025, when he incorrectly forecast a bear market as Bitcoin traded near $80,000. By July, the cryptocurrency had surged 54% to a record high of $123,236, invalidating his earlier analysis and prompting a public apology [1]. Ju acknowledged his oversight stemmed from failing to account for structural changes in investor behavior, particularly the growing influence of institutional players [2].

Traditionally, the cycle theory posited that Bitcoin’s price peaks aligned with whale-driven accumulation followed by retail investor participation. However, Ju now argues this model no longer applies due to a fundamental shift in market dynamics. Institutional adoption and macroeconomic factors have replaced retail-driven cycles, with large holders increasingly transferring assets to long-term treasuries and institutional funds rather than selling to individual investors [3]. This structural change has disrupted the predictable “buy when whales accumulate, sell when retail joins” pattern, as institutional buyers absorb supply without triggering the sell-offs characteristic of past bull cycles [4].

The reevaluation of the cycle theory has sparked debate among analysts. While Ju emphasizes the dominance of institutional forces, others, like Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer, maintain that Bitcoin still mirrors its four-year cycle [5]. Similarly, Bitcoin Magazine Pro analysts predict a potential price peak around October 2025, aligning with historical patterns, while analyst Ran Neer highlights parallels to prior bull phases, suggesting the market may extend into late 2025 [6]. These contrasting views underscore a lack of consensus on how to interpret evolving market conditions.

For investors, Ju advises caution against relying on outdated frameworks. “The market has evolved beyond retail-driven narratives,” he stated, noting the growing role of hedge funds, corporate treasuries, and sovereign wealth in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory [7]. CryptoQuant itself is adapting its on-chain tools to monitor institutional inflows and macroeconomic indicators, shifting focus from whale activity to align with the new market reality [8]. The company’s CEO apologized for prior missteps, pledging to prioritize data-driven insights over predictive models.

The debate reflects broader transformations in the crypto market. Institutional adoption is reshaping Bitcoin from a speculative asset into a mainstream financial tool, with macroeconomic forces now central to price movements. As regulatory frameworks evolve and Bitcoin approaches all-time highs, the reevaluation of the 4-year cycle theory signals a maturation of the market. However, the absence of a unified analytical model underscores the need for adaptive strategies, leaving investors to navigate a landscape where traditional indicators may no longer apply.

Sources:

[1] [Bitcoin Theory Is No Longer Valid, Says Crypto Expert](https://coinpedia.org/news/bitcoin-theory-is-no-longer-valid-says-crypto-expert/)

[2] ["Bitcoin Cycle Theory Is Dead" – Crypto CEO Apologizes](https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-cycle-theory-is-dead-crypto-ceo-apologizes-for-bearish-misfire/)

[3] [Bitcoin Cycle Theory Is Dead, Top Analyst Says](https://u.today/bitcoin-cycle-theory-is-dead-top-analyst-says)

[4] [Bitcoin Cycle Theory May Be Changing as Analyst Revises](https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560604880117)

[5] [Market Braces for a New Bitcoin All-time High as Global M2 Reaches Record High](https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/07/25/market-braces-for-a-new-bitcoin-all-time-high-as-global-m2-reaches-record-high/)

[6] [Bitcoin Cycle Theory May Be Changing as Analyst Revises](https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560604880117)

[7] ["Bitcoin Cycle Theory Is Dead" – Crypto CEO Apologizes](https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-cycle-theory-is-dead-crypto-ceo-apologizes-for-bearish-misfire/)

[8] [Bitcoin Theory Is No Longer Valid, Says Crypto Expert](https://coinpedia.org/news/bitcoin-theory-is-no-longer-valid-says-crypto-expert/)