Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's 42.5% CAGR Outpaces Gold and Nasdaq Growth

Bitcoin’s long-term growth continues to outpace major traditional assets, with data suggesting the digital asset is entering its most powerful phase yet. According to the latest Bitcoin Intelligence Report, Bitcoin’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 42.5% significantly exceeds that of the Nasdaq (16% in the last decade) and gold (12.88% when adjusted for supply growth). The US M2 money supply, by contrast, has expanded at a more modest 6% annually. This stark contrast highlights Bitcoin’s unique position as a high-growth digital store of value [1].

The report, which has used a power-law model for 16 years to track Bitcoin’s growth, forecasts a gradual but sustained increase in price, with the CAGR projected to fall to 30% by 2030. Even at that level, Bitcoin’s growth would remain robust compared to traditional assets. The power-law model also estimates a price range of $150,000 to $200,000 for Q4 2025, while extending the timeline to 2035, the model suggests potential price targets of $1.2 million to $1.5 million [1].

These forecasts are not based on speculative hype but on historical patterns. For instance, the model has demonstrated a high accuracy rate (R² > 0.95), capturing Bitcoin’s price evolution with strong consistency. Historically, every 50% increase in Bitcoin’s age has driven a 10x price jump, a pattern that appears to persist as adoption accelerates. Analysts view this as evidence of exponential, network-driven growth rather than market bubbles [1].

Current market conditions also support a bullish outlook. Institutional demand remains strong, with treasury companies and publicly traded companies collectively buying Bitcoin at an increasing pace. Bitwise’s chief investment officer, Matthew Hougan, has noted that the supply-demand balance is shifting toward demand, suggesting that price pressures at key levels—such as the $100,000 threshold—could be significant. He predicts that the next key level to test this demand is $200,000 [1].

On-chain activity reinforces this narrative. The $114,000–$117,000 accumulation zone has proven resilient, with Bitcoin rebounding to $122,000 following a brief correction. While the asset experienced a 5.1% drop to $113,231 amid global tariff tensions, it has since stabilized, trading between $118,000 and $119,000 as of August 12, 2025 [2].

Market participants are closely monitoring Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior, with many believing the asset is transitioning from an accumulation phase into a more sustained uptrend. Understanding these phases—accumulation, uptrend, distribution, and downtrend—is becoming increasingly important for investors. The current environment suggests the market is preparing for a phase of accelerated price growth [5].

Looking further ahead, the next Bitcoin halving is expected in 2028, an event historically associated with significant price surges due to reduced supply and increased demand. While this is a forecast, it aligns with the asset’s scarcity-driven model, which continues to attract both retail and institutional investors [6].

Bitcoin’s growing influence is also evident in broader market trends. Institutional adoption is accelerating, and Bitcoin’s market dominance has dipped from 66% to 61.5%, indicating a more diversified crypto market. Search interest in Bitcoin has also surged, with queries rising by 1,600% in 2025. This growing awareness is likely to drive further adoption and price appreciation [8].

Despite macroeconomic risks and geopolitical uncertainties, Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain strong. Institutional demand, long-term bullish forecasts, and increasing mainstream adoption all support the asset’s trajectory of sustained growth.

Sources:

[1] Bitcoin growth ‘remains exceptional’ as data shows BTC’s strongest phase just starting (https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/689ce1b59b583a34d769e042/)

[2] Bitcoin (BTC) Drops 5.1% to $113231 Amid Tariff Tensions ... (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/bitcoin-btc-drops-51-to-113231-amid-tariff-tensions-is-this-0035-crypto-the-safer-bet-with-more-upside-potential-in-august/ar-AA1KfHCC)

[5] Understanding Different Market Cycles in Crypto (https://algosone.ai/understanding-different-market-cycles-in-crypto-when-to-buy-hold-and-sell/)

[6] Should You Buy Bitcoin Before Its Next Halving? (https://www.aol.com/buy-bitcoin-next-halving-074400802.html)

[8] BTCI: A Better Way To Build Bitcoin Exposures (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4812538-btci-a-better-way-to-build-bitcoin-exposures)