Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's 405k BTC Sell-Off: Market Stabilization or Prelude to Capitulation?

Bitcoin HODLers offloaded 405,000 BTC in the past 30 days, marking one of the largest monthly drawdowns since July 2025, as long-term investors and short-term traders alike cashed in amid a volatile market environment, according to a Cryptobriefing report. This selling pressure coincided with a broader shift in trading dynamics, as spot market volume surged to $300 billion in October 2025, signaling a "healthy" pivot away from derivatives-driven speculation, per Cointelegraph. Analysts are now debating whether this trend represents a stabilization of market fundamentals or a prelude to further capitulation.

The $300 billion in spot trading volume was led by Binance, which accounted for $174 billion of the total, Cointelegraph reported. According to on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, this surge reflects growing participation from both retail and institutional investors, who are increasingly favoring spot markets over derivatives. "A market driven more by spot trading is generally healthier and less vulnerable to extreme volatility," the platform noted. This shift is particularly notable given Bitcoin's nearly 20% drop from its all-time high earlier in the month, which wiped out $20 billion in derivatives open interest and triggered widespread liquidations.

Meanwhile, long-term holders (LTHs) continued to offload significant portions of their holdings. Data from CryptoQuant's JA Maartun revealed that LTHs sold 325,600 BTC in October, the largest monthly drawdown since July 2025, as reported earlier by Cryptobriefing. Glassnode's data added another 104,000 BTC to the total, with Michael Nadeau of The DeFi Report warning that such sustained selling could signal a distribution phase, according to CoinCryptoNewz. Short-term holders, meanwhile, are sitting on average losses, with a cost basis of $113,000 as Bitcoin's price hovered near $100,000. Nadeau suggested that a potential drop to $60,000 could follow if LTHs continue to shift from accumulation to distribution.

Market participants are closely monitoring miner activity for signs of stability. Recent data indicates that miner reserves have stabilized, easing sell pressure and improving sentiment, according to an analysis by Crypto.news. Bitcoin's price consolidation near $115,000 reflects this trend, with analysts noting that a breakout above $118,000–$120,000 could drive the price toward $125,000–$130,000. However, a drop below $110,000 risks renewed miner capitulation, compounding downside pressures.

The broader macroeconomic landscape adds uncertainty. With the Federal Reserve's rate-cut timeline unclear and a potential government shutdown looming, Bitcoin's price has remained range-bound between $107,500 and $123,000 in November, per Coinpedia. Some analysts, however, remain cautiously optimistic about a "Santa Rally" in December if liquidity improves and quantitative tightening ends, the Coinpedia analysis added. For now, the $113,000 resistance level and $100,000 support are critical focal points for traders.

Technical and lunar cycle analyses suggest a potential bottom in mid-November, according to Beincrypto. While skeptics dismiss lunar phase correlations, the alignment of traditional support levels and moving average crossovers has made November a key period for market participants. Whether through conventional or unconventional strategies, traders are bracing for a decisive shift in Bitcoin's trajectory.