Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's 40% ETF-Driven Price Swings Amid Citigroup's $199K and $64K Scenarios

Bitcoin remains in a sideways consolidation phase, with conflicting signals emerging from technical indicators and institutional forecasts. Analysts highlight both bullish and bearish scenarios, driven by macroeconomic factors, ETF inflows, and on-chain metrics. Citigroup’s recent projections suggest a potential year-end target of $199,000 in a bullish case, while a bearish scenario could see prices fall to $64,000 if U.S. economic conditions deteriorate [3]. These forecasts align with broader market dynamics, including ETF demand, which Citigroup estimates accounts for over 40% of Bitcoin’s price variation [3].

Technical analyses present diverging views. A declining 50-day moving average on four-hour charts and overhead resistance near $120,000 raise bearish concerns [2]. Conversely, Bitcoin trading above its 20-day moving average and a strengthening MACD indicate short-term optimism [10]. However, a breakdown below $110,000 could invalidate bullish forecasts, signaling renewed bearish pressure [9].

ETF inflows are increasingly shaping market sentiment. Citigroup forecasts $15 billion in additional inflows this year, which could add approximately $63,000 to Bitcoin’s price, pushing it toward its base-case target of $135,000 [3]. This contrasts with Bitcoin’s current price of $115,000, where investors have shown a shift toward Ethereum, which has surged over 50% in the past month [3]. Despite Bitcoin’s 24% year-to-date gain, its inability to break above $120,000 highlights ongoing challenges in sustaining a breakout.

The interplay between macroeconomic indicators and crypto demand remains critical. Citigroup’s bearish scenario hinges on a U.S. economic downturn, which could amplify downside risks for Bitcoin. Conversely, sustained ETF inflows and favorable technical patterns, such as a bullish flag on daily charts, could reinforce upward momentum [1]. However, these outcomes depend on external factors, including Federal Reserve policy and broader equity market performance, which remain uncertain.

Market participants are closely monitoring key levels. A rebound above $120,000 could trigger renewed buying, while a drop below $110,000 might accelerate selling pressure. The crypto fear and greed index, currently in a neutral-to-greedy range, also suggests caution as extreme optimism or pessimism could drive sharp price swings [9].

Bitcoin’s recent price action reflects indecision, with a narrow trading range and weak rebounds from support levels. Analysts note that a strong bounce from a new low could restore confidence, but until then, the sideways pattern persists. The $113,800 support level is critical; a breakdown below this threshold could force a reevaluation of the bullish outlook [1].

In summary, Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory remains contingent on balancing these conflicting dynamics. While institutional forecasts and technical indicators offer a framework for potential outcomes, execution will depend on evolving market conditions and macroeconomic developments.

Sources:

[1] [Bitcoin Price Prediction: Bullish And Bearish Scenarios Explained] https://coinpedia.org/news/bitcoin-price-prediction-bullish-and-bearish-scenarios-explained-2/

[2] [Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2025 2026 2027 - 2030] https://changelly.com/blog/bitcoin-price-prediction/

[3] [Citi Forecasts Bitcoin to Reach $199K by Year-End] https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/07/25/citi-forecasts-bitcoin-to-reach-199k-by-year-end/

[9] [Bitcoin Price Prediction as Crypto Fear and Greed Index Rises] https://www.banklesstimes.com/articles/2025/07/24/bitcoin-price-prediction-as-crypto-fear-and-greed-index-rises/

[10] [BTC Price Prediction: Technical and Fundamental Factors] https://www.btcc.com/en-CA/square/Bitcoin%20News/687555