Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's 4-Year Halving Cycle Obsolete as Institutional Adoption and Regulation Drive 10.17% Surge

Bitcoin’s traditional four-year price cycle, historically linked to block reward halving events, is increasingly deemed obsolete as institutional adoption and regulatory clarity reshape market dynamics. Analysts and industry leaders attribute this shift to the growing influence of corporate and institutional investors, who now treat Bitcoin as a strategic asset rather than a speculative commodity. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, stated, “The Bitcoin Cycle theory is dead,” emphasizing that institutional accumulation and legislative progress—such as the proposed GENIUS Act—have eclipsed the predictive power of halving events [1][2]. This perspective aligns with recent price movements, including a 10.17% surge on July 23, driven by sustained institutional buying rather than cyclical speculation [4].

Institutional adoption is reshaping Bitcoin’s market behavior. ETF inflows and corporate treasuries amassing BTC have weakened historical patterns where retail-driven speculation and halving events dictated price peaks and troughs. For instance, Bitcoin’s climb to $123,000 was fueled by long-term institutional holdings rather than short-term volatility tied to halvings [1]. Matt Hougan, CIO at Bitwise Asset Management, highlighted that macroeconomic trends, institutional inflows, and regulatory clarity now dominate Bitcoin’s trajectory. “We’re in for a good few years,” he said, projecting optimism for 2026 and beyond [9].

The maturation of the crypto market is evident in its reduced reliance on halving cycles. Regulatory frameworks in major markets are creating a stable environment for institutional participation, with corporate treasuries redefining Bitcoin’s role as a store of value. Ki Young Ju noted that institutional demand is now a more reliable indicator of market health than historical price models [7]. This shift has also influenced related assets like Ethereum, as institutional strategies prioritize compliance and macroeconomic factors over mining-driven cycles [5].

Market analysis is adapting to these changes. Traditional models based on halving timelines are losing relevance, with investors instead monitoring institutional on-chain activity and treasury holdings. Ju acknowledged that the crypto market’s rapid evolution has outpaced even his expectations, underscoring the need for flexible analytical approaches [9]. While volatility persists, the consensus is that institutional forces now drive Bitcoin’s price, making it more resilient to speculative bubbles than in previous cycles.

The transition from retail-driven speculation to institutional-grade infrastructure marks a broader structural shift in the crypto ecosystem. As legislation clarifies and corporate demand grows, Bitcoin’s role in global finance is evolving, signaling a new era for digital assets.

Sources:

[1] [Bitcoin No Longer Follows Halving-Driven Market Cycles](https://coincentral.com/cryptoquant-bitcoin-no-longer-follows-halving-driven-market-cycles/)

[2] [Bitcoin Cycle Theory Is Dead – Crypto CEO Apologizes](https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-cycle-theory-is-dead-crypto-ceo-apologizes-for-bearish-misfire/)

[4] [Bitcoin Surges 10.17% on Institutional Adoption](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-surges-10-17-institutional-adoption-regulatory-clarity-halving-cycle-influence-wanes-2507/)

[5] [Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Weakened by Institutional Adoption](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-4-year-cycle-weakened-institutional-adoption-ethereum-etfs-outperform-2-4b-inflows-2507/)

[7] [CEO of CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, invalidates Bitcoin](https://m.facebook.com/manuel.guevarra.369210/photos/ceo-of-cryptoquant-ki-young-ju-invalidates-bitcoin-theory-of-bull-and-bear-marke/729109946668883/)

[9] [Crypto Price Analysis July-25: ETH, XRP, ADA, SOL, and](https://m.fastbull.com/news-detail/crypto-price-analysis-july25-eth-xrp-ada-sol-news_6100_0_2025_3_4855_3/6100_LTC-USDT)