Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Theory Invalidated by 54% Forecast Error, Institutional Adoption

The traditional Bitcoin cycle theory, long used to predict bull and bear markets through a 4-year halving event framework, is now being dismissed by Ki Young Ju, CEO of on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant. In a series of public statements and social media posts between July 6 and July 22, 2025, Ju admitted his earlier bearish forecasts were incorrect and acknowledged a fundamental shift in market dynamics driven by institutional adoption and whale behavior [1][2]. The theory, which historically tied Bitcoin’s price movements to cyclical accumulation by large holders (whales) and retail investor activity, has become obsolete as macroeconomic factors and institutional participation reshape the landscape [3][4].

Ju highlighted that current whale behavior diverges from historical patterns. Previously, whales would offload holdings to retail investors during bull cycles, facilitating liquidity. However, in the present environment, large holders are increasingly transferring assets to institutional treasuries and long-term investment funds, bypassing retail-driven cycles entirely [5]. This structural shift, coupled with record institutional demand for Bitcoin, has rendered the 4-year cycle model ineffective. “Buy when whales accumulate, sell when retail joins,” the core tenet of the old theory, no longer holds as new long-term whales absorb supply [6].

The invalidation of the cycle theory has sparked debate among analysts. While Ju and CryptoQuant emphasize the role of institutional adoption—citing metrics like global M2 money supply growth—as a dominant driver of Bitcoin’s price action, some experts argue the current cycle still aligns with bull market trends. Bitcoin Magazine Pro analysts predict a potential price peak around October 2025, aligning with historical cycle patterns [7]. Similarly, Ran Neer, a well-known Bitcoin analyst, contends that market dynamics resemble prior bull phases and could extend into late 2025 [8].

For investors, Ju advises caution in relying on outdated frameworks. “The market has evolved beyond retail-driven narratives,” he stated, noting that hedge funds, corporate treasuries, and sovereign wealth funds now play a pivotal role in Bitcoin’s trajectory [9]. This transition signals a maturation of the crypto market, where speculation gives way to capital-intensive, institutionally driven growth. However, the lack of a clear, unified analytical model underscores the need for adaptive strategies.

CryptoQuant’s on-chain tools, previously designed to track whale activity and confirm cycle phases, are being reoriented to monitor institutional inflows and network metrics. Ju apologized for past missteps, pledging to prioritize data-driven insights over predictive models [10]. The market’s response has been mixed: some view the shift as bullish for sustained price growth, while others worry about the implications for retail traders who relied on cycle-based strategies.

As Bitcoin approaches all-time highs and regulatory frameworks evolve, the crypto landscape continues to defy conventional wisdom. The reevaluation of the 4-year cycle theory reflects a broader reality: institutional adoption is reshaping Bitcoin from a speculative asset into a mainstream financial tool. For now, observers must navigate a market where historical patterns offer less guidance, and macroeconomic forces take center stage.

Sources:

[1] [Bitcoin Theory Is No Longer Valid, Says Crypto Expert](https://coinpedia.org/news/bitcoin-theory-is-no-longer-valid-says-crypto-expert/)

[2] ["Bitcoin Cycle Theory Is Dead" – Crypto CEO Apologizes](https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-cycle-theory-is-dead-crypto-ceo-apologizes-for-bearish-misfire/)

[3] [Bitcoin Cycle Theory Is Dead, Top Analyst Says](https://u.today/bitcoin-cycle-theory-is-dead-top-analyst-says)

[4] [Bitcoin Cycle Theory Obsolete as Ki Young Ju Admits 54% Forecast Error](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-cycle-theory-obsolete-ki-young-ju-admits-54-forecast-error-2507/)

[5] [CryptoQuant CEO Declares Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Obsolete](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-cryptoquant-ceo-declares-bitcoin-4-year-cycle-obsolete-due-institutional-adoption-2507/)

[6] [Bitcoin Cycle Theory May Be Changing as Analyst Revises](https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560604880117)

[7] [Market Braces for a New Bitcoin All-time High as Global M2 Reaches Record High](https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/07/25/market-braces-for-a-new-bitcoin-all-time-high-as-global-m2-reaches-record-high/)

[8] [Bitcoin Cycle Theory May Be Changing as Analyst Revises](https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560604880117)

[9] ["Bitcoin Cycle Theory Is Dead" – Crypto CEO Apologizes](https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-cycle-theory-is-dead-crypto-ceo-apologizes-for-bearish-misfire/)

[10] [Bitcoin Theory Is No Longer Valid, Says Crypto Expert](https://coinpedia.org/news/bitcoin-theory-is-no-longer-valid-says-crypto-expert/)