Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Riddle: Will History Repeat or Break?

Bitcoin’s adherence to its historic four-year cycle remains a subject of intense debate among analysts and investors, with recent price movements and on-chain data pointing to a potential continuation of this pattern. According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, Bitcoin’s current price action aligns with previous cycles, suggesting that the market may still be in a late-phase bull run. Profit-taking by long-term holders—those holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days—has reached levels comparable to past euphoric phases, reinforcing the idea that the cycle could be nearing its peak. Additionally, weakening demand for Bitcoin is evident, with spot ETFs showing outflows of around $975 million over four trading days and open interest in major altcoins reaching a record high before a sharp correction [1].

Bitcoin’s price, which hit a new all-time high of $124,128 on August 14, has since fallen by 8.3%, trading at approximately $113,940 at the time of reporting. This decline has pushed traders toward more speculative positions, with increased volatility in altcoin markets. If the trend persists, Bitcoin could potentially reach new highs as early as October, following historical patterns from 2018 and 2022 cycles, where peaks typically occurred two to three months after the cycle low [1]. Rekt Capital, a crypto analyst, has also suggested that if the 2024 cycle follows the 2020 pattern, the peak may arrive in October—550 days after the April 2024 halving [1].

However, not all experts agree that Bitcoin is still bound by the four-year cycle. Some argue that structural changes, such as the growing adoption of spot Bitcoin ETFs and increased institutional participation, could break this pattern. Jason Williams, a noted investor, pointed out that publicly traded companies hold nearly 1 million Bitcoin in their treasuries, a sign that the traditional cycle may no longer apply. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, has even declared the cycle “dead,” predicting a more stable price trajectory for the asset in 2026. He argues that the halving’s impact diminishes with each cycle, and favorable interest rate environments could shift Bitcoin’s behavior [1].

Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Balchunas echoed similar sentiments, noting that the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 has brought more stable, long-term institutional investors into the market. These investors, including entities like Harvard University and Goldman Sachs, are less prone to panic selling, which could reduce the typical volatility seen in past cycles. “More stable owners, more stable price,” he stated, emphasizing that the nature of Bitcoin’s ownership has changed significantly [2].

Despite these arguments for a new phase, concerns remain about Bitcoin’s long-term viability. Justin Bons, founder of Cyber Capital, warned that Bitcoin’s shrinking block rewards could undermine network security by 2036, reducing miner incentives to a level insufficient to protect a potential trillion-dollar network. He also raised concerns about Bitcoin’s rigid governance model, which resists major upgrades like larger block sizes or inflationary measures. Bons further highlighted the looming threat of quantum computing, which could compromise older Bitcoin wallets and introduce new risks to the network [3].

Investors, meanwhile, are increasingly looking beyond Bitcoin to alternative projects with higher growth potential. One such project, MAGACOIN FINANCE, has attracted attention for its high return-on-investment forecasts and aggressive reward mechanisms. Analysts project a potential 15,000% ROI for the project, positioning it as a top pick for 2025. While Bitcoin remains a dominant asset, many are diversifying their portfolios to include emerging opportunities that may outperform the leading cryptocurrency in the next cycle [4].

As the debate over Bitcoin’s future continues, the market remains divided between those who see the four-year cycle as a reliable predictor of price movements and those who believe the asset has entered a new era of stability. Institutional adoption, governance challenges, and technological risks all contribute to a landscape that is evolving rapidly. For now, investors are closely watching price trends, on-chain metrics, and governance developments to determine whether Bitcoin’s next chapter will follow historical patterns or forge a new path entirely [1][2][3].

Source:

[1] Bitcoin's 4-year cycle may not be dead after all: Glassnode (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-4-year-old-cycle-not-dead-crypto-analysts)

[2] Is Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle Over? Why BTC May Finally Break ... (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoins-4-cycle-over-why-130103242.html)

[3] Major Bitcoin Warning from Top Crypto Expert Shocks ... (https://coincentral.com/major-bitcoin-warning-from-top-crypto-expert-shocks-investors/)

[4] Best Crypto to Buy Now — MAGACOIN FINANCE, Bitcoin & ... (https://coincentral.com/best-crypto-to-buy-now-magacoin-finance-bitcoin-shiba-inu-highlighted-for-15000-roi/)