Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle Fractures as Institutions and ETFs Redefine Market Dynamics

Bitcoin's potential bull market peak and the likelihood of a correction remain topics of intense debate among analysts, with conflicting signals emerging from historical cycle theories, macroeconomic shifts, and institutional dynamics. Recent price action and market conditions suggest the 4-year cycle may be nearing its climax, but external factors like ETF adoption and regulatory developments are altering traditional patterns.

Analysts have long used Bitcoin's 4-year halving-driven cycles to anticipate price peaks. Joao Wedson of Alphractal posits a peak on October 19, 2025, based on a 548-day rally post-halving, while another analyst, "seliseli46," calculates a potential peak on December 23, 2025, using a 152-week cycle model. These predictions align with historical trends where major highs occurred 12–18 months after halvings. However, deviations are evident. The last halving in April 2024 saw Bitcoin hit a record high of $73,000 before the event, a departure from the typical post-halving surge.

The 4-year cycle's predictability is waning due to structural changes. The approval of U.S. Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 accelerated demand, with spot ETF inflows exceeding $7.1 billion in a single week as of July 2025 Is Bitcoin’s “Uptober” Here? Analysts Look to a 4-Year Cycle^[1]. Institutional participation, including corporate treasury holdings and macroeconomic stability, has reduced volatility. Matthew Hougan of Bitwise Asset Management argues the cycle is "officially over" if 2026 remains bullish, citing improved regulatory engagement and declining interest rates as mitigants for future crashes.

Historical 70–80% drawdowns may also be obsolete. Ryan Chow of Solv Protocol notes the current cycle's largest correction was 26%, compared to 84% post-2017 and 77% post-2021. Institutional inflows and long-term holder accumulation are dampening downside risks, though 30–50% corrections remain possible in response to macro shocks Bitcoin (BTC) price cycle might be breaking - CNBC^[2].

China's expanding M2 money supply, now outpacing the U.S., has historically correlated with Bitcoin rallies. Analysts link rising Chinese liquidity to increased risk-taking, with the PBoC's recent injections mirroring 2015 and 2020 bullish phases. Meanwhile, U.S. regulatory clarity, including the GENIUS Act's stablecoin framework, has bolstered market sentiment. The interplay between U.S. dollar strength and Bitcoin's inverse correlation remains a key variable .

Bitcoin's price trajectory suggests it is entering a late-cycle phase. The MVRV Z-Score, a volatility-adjusted metric, indicates significant upside potential, with levels comparable to May 2017. The Pi Cycle Oscillator, tracking 111-day and 350-day moving averages, signals renewed bullish momentum. On-chain data also shows whale activity, with large BTC transfers from dormant wallets hinting at institutional accumulation .

If the cycle follows historical patterns, a peak could emerge between October and December 2025, with price targets ranging from $140,000 to $210,000. However, a prolonged consolidation phase into early 2026 is possible if macroeconomic headwinds delay the peak. A sharp correction to $50,000 in 2026 is not ruled out, particularly if ETF outflows or regulatory setbacks trigger panic selling 2025 U.S. and China Cryptocurrency Market Analysis: A …^[4].

Bitcoin's bull run shows signs of exhaustion, but the interplay of institutional adoption, regulatory progress, and macroeconomic factors complicates traditional cycle predictions. While a peak in late 2025 or early 2026 is likely, the severity of any subsequent correction depends on global liquidity, policy shifts, and market sentiment. Investors must remain vigilant to both bullish momentum and potential overextension, as the next chapter in Bitcoin's cycle unfolds.