Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Fades as ETFs and Institutional Demand Drive Price Surge

Bitcoin’s 4-year market cycle, long considered a cornerstone of its price trajectory, appears to be losing relevance according to industry experts. The cycle, historically tied to the halving event—where miner rewards are cut in half—once acted as a predictable driver of price surges and subsequent market corrections. However, with the April 2024 halving already having occurred, Bitcoin reached a record high of $73,000 before the event, largely driven by the approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and a surge in institutional inflows, signaling a shift in market dynamics [1].

Pierre Rochard, CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, argues that the traditional 4-year cycle is no longer applicable. In a post on X, he stated that halvings are no longer material to trading float, as 95% of Bitcoin has already been mined. Current supply comes from buying out OG (original) Bitcoin holders, while demand is driven by spot retail, ETPs (exchange-traded products), and treasury companies. Rochard emphasized that the market is now being steered more by OG whales, ETFs, and corporate leaders like Michael Saylor than by the algorithmic forces once central to Bitcoin’s design [1].

The evolving landscape is also supported by Jason Dussault of Intellistake.ai, who noted that Bitcoin’s price movements are increasingly influenced by global liquidity, ETF flows, and investor sentiment, similar to traditional asset classes like equities and commodities [1]. Mete Al of ICB Labs similarly remarked that Bitcoin is transitioning into its “adulthood,” where macroeconomic conditions and liquidity waves have greater influence than supply shocks [1].

While some analysts acknowledge the reduced impact of halvings, they do not dismiss them entirely. Connor Howe of Enso said that while macroeconomic factors and institutional positioning now dominate, the halving still plays a role in miner economics and long-term scarcity narratives. Likewise, Prashant Maurya of Spheron reiterated that the halving is not irrelevant but no longer the primary driver of price [1].

The broader market reflects this shift. The total cryptocurrency market cap recently hit $4.13 trillion, surpassing the previous peak of $3.9 trillion, with 24-hour trading volumes reaching nearly $145 billion [1]. These figures suggest a maturing market where institutional and macroeconomic factors play an increasingly dominant role.

However, not all observers are convinced the 4-year cycle is entirely over. Toby Cunningham of Crypto Tips warned against complacency, noting that such talk often emerges near the top of bull markets. He cautioned that overconfidence can lead to missed opportunities [1]. SightBringer, a crypto analyst, argued that the 4-year cycle was never a natural law but a product of Bitcoin’s early structure, when retail capital dominated and halvings created supply shocks. The current market is shaped by institutional collateralization, global liquidity, and sovereign holdings, he said [1].

As the market continues to evolve, investors must adapt their strategies. Prashant Maurya noted that the old halving cycle is giving way to a multi-factor framework incorporating macroeconomic conditions, on-chain metrics, and capital flows [1]. Rochard summarized the sentiment well: “Miners are passengers; they no longer drive the bus.” With this new regime, the playbook for investing in Bitcoin will need to be rewritten [1].

Source:

[1] Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Is Dead, Says Pierre Rochard — Here’s What Drives BTC Price Now

https://cryptonews.com/news/bitcoins-4-year-cycle-is-dead-says-pierre-rochard-heres-what-drives-btc-price-now/