Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle Ends as $154B ETF Surge Signals Institutional Shift

Bitcoin’s traditional four-year price cycle, long seen as a predictable force in the cryptocurrency market, is increasingly viewed as obsolete, according to experts. Matt Hougan, investment director at Bitwise Asset Management, argues that factors such as halvings, regulatory shifts, and institutional adoption no longer drive price patterns as they once did. Instead, the market is evolving toward a model shaped by sustained institutional demand and macroeconomic trends [3]. This shift marks a pivotal transition in Bitcoin’s trajectory, with implications for how investors and analysts assess its future.

Hougan highlighted several key drivers behind this transformation. First, the impact of halvings—events that reduce Bitcoin’s block reward every four years—has diminished as institutional and corporate buying becomes a steadier force. Unlike past cycles, where halvings triggered sharp supply shocks, today’s market sees gradual accumulation by large entities, smoothing out price volatility [3]. Second, improved regulation and industry maturation have reduced the risk of sudden collapses, making the market less susceptible to speculative bubbles. Third, the rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs has opened a new channel for capital inflows, with traditional financial institutions only beginning to participate. Hougan noted that $154 billion in assets under management from these ETFs signals a structural shift in market dynamics [3].

The changing landscape also reflects a growing alignment with traditional finance. Hougan observed that Bitcoin’s correlation with Federal Reserve interest rate changes has turned positive, contrasting with the negative relationship seen in 2018 and 2022. This suggests that macroeconomic factors may now play a more prominent role in Bitcoin’s price behavior than event-driven cycles [3]. Additionally, legislative developments such as the recent GENIUS Act are expected to accelerate institutional participation, with Wall Street players potentially investing billions in cryptocurrency over the next few years [3].

Despite these positive trends, risks remain. Hougan warned of potential volatility stemming from the rapid adoption of Bitcoin by corporations as a treasury reserve asset. Such activity could create imbalances if not managed carefully. CryptoQuant’s CEO Ki Young Ju also acknowledged the limitations of historical cycle theories, admitting past forecasting errors and emphasizing the need to adapt to new market realities [9].

Looking ahead, Hougan predicted 2026 could be a significant year for the crypto market, though he stressed that volatility is still a possibility. He described the current trajectory as a “stable, stable boom” rather than a speculative supercycle, driven by fundamentals like institutional infrastructure and cross-asset correlations [3]. However, analysts caution that macroeconomic shifts and regulatory developments will remain critical variables in shaping Bitcoin’s path.

The demise of the four-year cycle underscores a broader evolution in the crypto ecosystem. As institutional adoption deepens and regulatory clarity emerges, Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like a traditional asset class. Investors must now navigate a landscape where long-term factors—such as adoption rates and macroeconomic cycles—take precedence over short-term, event-driven speculation [8]. This transition, while uncertain, signals a maturing market poised for sustained growth.

Source:

[3] [Crypto's 4-Year Cycle Is Over: $154B ETF Surge Signals New Market Era - FXLeaders](https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2025/07/26/cryptos-4-year-cycle-is-over-154b-etf-surge-signals-new-market-era/)

[8] [How Bitcoin's Boom-Bust Cycles Are Changing - Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-boom-bust-cycles-changing-193325092.html)

[9] ['Bitcoin Cycle Theory Is Dead' Says CryptoQuant CEO - Crypto Economy](https://crypto-economy.com/bitcoin-cycle-theory-is-dead-says-cryptoquant-ceo-what-does-it-mean/)