Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's 4-year cycle declared dead as 2026 predicted pivotal year, 30-day gain 10.17%

Bitcoin’s traditional four-year market cycle, long a staple of crypto price predictions, is increasingly being dismissed as an outdated framework. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, has forecasted that 2026 could mark a pivotal year for Bitcoin, driven by evolving market dynamics that diverge from historical patterns. Hougan argues that factors such as regulatory clarity, institutional adoption, and macroeconomic trends are reshaping the asset’s trajectory, potentially rendering the halving-driven cycle obsolete [1].

Hougan’s analysis centers on the weakening influence of Bitcoin’s four-year halving events, which historically correlated with price surges. He notes that the halving’s significance has diminished over time, with each subsequent event exerting “half as much importance” as the prior. Instead, Bitcoin’s performance is increasingly tied to interest rate environments, where lower rates—potentially spurred by U.S. President Donald Trump’s public pressure on the Federal Reserve—could make crypto more attractive compared to traditional assets like bonds. This macroeconomic alignment, Hougan argues, represents a structural shift rather than a cyclical one [2].

Regulatory developments also play a critical role in Hougan’s outlook. Improved oversight and institutionalization have reduced the risk of market “blow-ups,” he said, citing a more stable environment as companies and governments integrate Bitcoin into their operations. However, he cautioned that the rapid growth of Bitcoin treasury companies—entities accumulating large Bitcoin holdings—could introduce new volatility if market conditions shift. This risk, while acknowledged as significant, is viewed as manageable within the broader context of a maturing market [3].

The Bitwise CIO’s perspective has gained traction among other industry figures. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, recently echoed Hougan’s views, stating that the four-year cycle theory “no longer works” and acknowledging past errors in predicting price patterns tied to halvings. Similarly, asset manager VanEck warned of vulnerabilities in firms acquiring Bitcoin through debt or stock issuance, highlighting potential overexposure during downturns [4].

Not all analysts agree on the timeline. While Hougan anticipates a “sustained steady boom” into 2026, others, like Crypto analyst Rekt Capital, argue that Bitcoin may follow historical patterns, peaking in October 2025—550 days after the April 2024 halving. This debate underscores the uncertainty surrounding the asset’s trajectory but also highlights the growing consensus that institutional and regulatory forces are reshaping its behavior [5].

For investors, Hougan’s forecast implies a need to recalibrate strategies. Traditional approaches tied to halving events may no longer apply, as Bitcoin’s market dynamics evolve toward long-term adoption and integration with mainstream finance. The CIO emphasized that “long-term pro-crypto forces will overwhelm the classic four-year cycle forces,” if such a construct still exists. While volatility remains a possibility, the overall trajectory points to gradual growth rather than the sharp boom-and-bust cycles of the past [6].

Bitcoin’s price currently stands at $118,169, reflecting a 10.17% increase over the past 30 days, according to Nansen. As the market navigates regulatory and institutional shifts, the 2026 timeline could become a focal point for both bulls and bears, with outcomes hinging on how macroeconomic and structural factors interact [7].

Source:

[1] [Bitcoin 'up year' is 2026, and the four-year cycle is dead](https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-upside-2026-four-year-cycle-dead-bitwise-invest-cio)

[2] [Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan Says Four-Year Cycle Is Dead](https://dailyhodl.com/2025/07/26/bitwise-cio-matt-hougan-says-four-year-cycle-is-dead-predicts-2026-will-be-a-good-year-for-bitcoin-and-crypto-heres-why/)

[3] [Bitcoin's 4-Year Boom-Bust Cycle Loses Grip as ...](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-4-year-boom-bust-cycle-loses-grip-institutional-adoption-etfs-drive-2026-breakout-2507/)

[4] [Crypto market's four-year cycle is 'dead'](https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-markets-four-year-cycle-is-dead-bitcoin-halving-losing-importance-bitwise-executive-202507252018)

[5] [Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Is Dead: What's Next for ...](https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/19e6b-bitcoin-s-four-year-cycle-is-dead-what-s-next-for-cryptocurrency)

[6] [Bitwise CIO Declares Crypto Four‑Year Cycle Dead](https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/07/25/bitwise-cio-declares-crypto-four%E2%80%91year-cycle-dead-predicts-steady-and-sustained-boom-from-2026/)

[7] [Bitcoin's four-year cycle loses grip as maturing market ...](https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoins-four-year-cycle-loses-grip-as-maturing-market-reshapes-dynamics/)