Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's 30% Drop: Correction or Onset of Bear Market?

Bitcoin's price has fallen below $85,000 as of November 22, 2025, marking a 30% drop from its October peak above $126,000. The cryptocurrency market has lost over $1 trillion in value since early October, driven by a combination of macroeconomic uncertainty, record outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, and a sudden selloff triggered by Trump-era tariff rhetoric according to analysis. Despite the sharp correction, analysts remain divided on whether this is a cyclical pause or the start of a deeper bear market.

The recent turmoil has been exacerbated by Bitcoin ETF flows. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $3.79 billion in net outflows in November, the largest monthly exodus since their launch. BlackRock's IBIT, the largest ETF, saw a record $523 million single-day withdrawal this week as prices slid below $90,000. However, some funds have shown resilience: Ethereum and Solana ETFs attracted $96.67 million and $57.99 million in inflows, respectively, on November 24, as investors rotated into altcoins.

Macro factors are also shaping the outlook. Derivatives markets now price a 71% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, which historically supports risk assets. Yet fears of an AI-driven tech bubble and geopolitical risks have kept broader markets on edge. Meanwhile, on-chain data suggests Bitcoin may be nearing a turning point.

Institutional demand remains a key wildcard. Harvard University has increased its Bitcoin ETF holdings to $443 million, while Japan's Metaplanet plans to allocate ¥15 billion ($100 million) to BTC purchases in late 2025. NASDAQ-listed KindlyMD also reported holding 5,398 BTC as of November 12, highlighting continued corporate interest in crypto treasuries.

Expert forecasts span a wide range. Ultra-bullish analysts like Standard Chartered and Bitwise still target $150,000–$200,000 by year-end, citing structural demand and Fed easing. More moderate views cluster around $100,000–$135,000, while cautious analysts expect consolidation near $80,000–$100,000 (according to analysis). Bearish scenarios warn of potential dips to $58,000 or lower, though most agree a 70%+ drawdown is improbable (according to analysis).

Technical indicators suggest a potential rebound. Bitcoin is testing a key support level within its long-term rising channel, and Santiment data shows retail fear metrics at yearly lows-historically a precursor to rebounds. The Fed's planned end to quantitative tightening on December 1 also signals improved liquidity, which could bolster risk assets (according to analysis).

Risks remain, however. A deeper-than-expected economic slowdown, regulatory shifts, or a major exchange failure could disrupt forecasts. For now, investors are advised to treat all price predictions as scenarios rather than certainties.