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The Coinbase
Premium Index has entered its 27th consecutive day of negative territory, underscoring persistent selling pressure from U.S. institutional investors despite recent signs of easing market volatility. , the index stood at -0.0515%, reflecting a price discrepancy between Coinbase-a major U.S. exchange-and the global Bitcoin average. This prolonged negative premium, , signals ongoing capital outflows and a lack of confidence in the asset class among domestic institutional players.The index, a critical barometer for U.S. market fund flows and institutional sentiment, typically signals strong buying pressure when positive. A negative reading, conversely, often indicates risk aversion, reduced liquidity, or aggressive selling.
of negative premiums mirrors Bitcoin's price decline from near $120,000 to around $84,500, with institutional selling outpacing global demand. a recent hourly premium of -0.06, emphasizing subdued U.S. institutional appetite. Meanwhile, to 70,000 contracts from below 20,000 in late October, suggesting growing bearish positioning.The negative premium has been exacerbated by record outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, which have shed $3.79 billion in November alone.
(IBIT) led the exodus with $2.47 billion in redemptions, accounting for 63% of total outflows. after Bitcoin's October peak and macroeconomic pressures, including uncertainty around December interest rate cuts. $531 million in inflows, partly due to competitive staking yields and lower fees.Weekend trading pauses have briefly alleviated the negative premium, with the index showing mean reversion as U.S. sellers step back. However,
downward pressure, highlighting the dominance of domestic players in shaping Bitcoin's short-term trajectory. recurring weekend recovery patterns, but stressed that weekday selling remains the primary driver of the current downtrend.Experts warn that a reversal in the Coinbase Premium Index is critical for Bitcoin to form a sustainable bottom. Historically, trend changes coincide with the premium returning to neutral or positive territory, indicating renewed institutional demand. Until then, rebounds are likely to be short-lived, as selling pressure from U.S. institutions persists.
about AI-driven growth, has trimmed its Bitcoin price forecast to $1.2 million by 2030 amid macroeconomic headwinds.The broader market faces a challenging juncture, with Bitcoin ETF outflows and negative premiums reinforcing bearish sentiment. Institutional caution, coupled with thinning liquidity, has amplified price swings, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of selling and declining values. As the year-end approaches, the market will closely watch for signs of stabilization in both the premium index and ETF flows, which could signal the end of the current downturn.
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