Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's 21% Rally Hinges on ETFs and Short-Squeeze Dynamics

Bitcoin's price may rebound up to 21% within seven days if historical patterns repeat, according to analysis from market observers. The cryptocurrency entered October 2025 with a strong seasonal backdrop, as data from Coinglass shows Bitcoin has closed positive in 10 of the past 12 Octobers since 2013. Notable surges in 2013 (60.79%), 2017 (47.81%), 2021 (39.93%), and 2023 (28.52%) have reinforced the "Uptober" narrative, with October historically averaging 14.4% gains over the same period Bitcoin Heads into Historically Bullish October After Third-Best ...^[3]. Current conditions, including record ETF inflows and institutional demand, align with prior bullish setups.

The BlackRock bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has drawn over $98.6 billion in assets, nearing a $100 billion milestone five times faster than any other ETF in history. This surge, combined with a 7% rise in October 2025, has fueled optimism among investors. Analysts note that while Bitcoin's recent pullback to $124,000 from a $126,000 peak reflects short-term volatility, underlying factors such as shrinking exchange supply and rising institutional participation suggest sustained momentum. Derive.xyz's Sean Dawson highlighted that implied volatilities across 14, 30, and 90-day expiries have hit 30-day highs, signaling anticipation of significant price movements Forbes Digital Assets^[1].

A key mechanism for a potential rebound lies in the risk of short-position liquidation. Coinglass data indicates a dense band of short positions near $121,600, where a modest upward push could trigger a cascade of liquidations, propelling Bitcoin toward $125,000 and beyond Forbes Digital Assets^[1]. This dynamic mirrors historical October rallies, where intramonth volatility often intensified after mid-month inflection points.

However, risks remain. The U.S. dollar's weakness and macroeconomic uncertainty have bolstered Bitcoin's appeal as a hedge, but sudden policy shifts or geopolitical tensions-such as Trump's recent China tariff threats-could disrupt the bullish trajectory . Despite these risks, the combination of seasonal strength, ETF-driven demand, and institutional accumulation creates a compelling case for a near-term rebound.

Market watchers caution that while history provides probabilities, it does not guarantee outcomes. A 21% rebound within seven days would require sustained buying pressure, stable macroeconomic conditions, and a lack of regulatory headwinds. For now, the data suggests that October 2025 could follow its historical trend, offering a strong foundation for further gains if current dynamics hold.