Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's 2025 Volatility: ETFs, Trade Wars, and Fed Uncertainty

Bitcoin's price trajectory in 2025 has been marked by volatility, driven by a confluence of macroeconomic shifts, geopolitical tensions, and structural demand from institutional investors. As of late 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $110,000 after hitting an all-time high of $124,533 in August, underscoring its sensitivity to U.S. macroeconomic data, global liquidity conditions, and risk appetite. The rollout of spot ETFs has emerged as a transformative force, with U.S. and global ETPs collectively holding approximately 1.47 million BTC, or 7% of the maximum supply. However, oscillating ETF flows, particularly outflows in August, highlight a key risk for 2026, as liquidity tightening or regulatory shifts could trigger mid-cycle drawdowns.

The interplay between Bitcoin's issuance schedule and demand dynamics remains central to its price action. Post-2024 halving, annual issuance stands at 164,000 BTC, with ETFs and corporate treasuries acting as marginal buyers. Analysts caution that miner fee compression-averaging 1–2% of mining rewards in 2025-poses a long-term threat to network security budgets, particularly if fee growth stagnates. Meanwhile, long-term holder (LTH) activity has introduced additional volatility, exemplified by a September 2025 sell-off of 97,000 BTC in a single day, signaling potential supply overhang risks during risk-off periods.

Geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S.-China trade war, have further amplified market instability. A 245% tariff escalation on Chinese imports in April 2025 triggered a 3.4% drop in Bitcoin's price to $75,773, alongside a 7.53% decline in Ethereum (ETH). The Fear & Greed Index registered "Extreme Fear," reflecting heightened risk-off sentiment as investors sought safer assets. Conversely, historical precedents, such as the 2015 yuan devaluation, suggest that capital flight from China could spur renewed demand for Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat devaluation. Ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and China in June 2025 remain pivotal, with outcomes likely to dictate short-term crypto price movements.

Macro factors, including the Federal Reserve's policy path, continue to dominate Bitcoin's risk profile. The Fed's 4.25–4.50% target rate range into the September 2025 FOMC meeting has kept BTC tightly correlated with global liquidity trends. A potential easing cycle in 2026 could reinvigorate risk assets, but analysts warn that a "stop-start" or recessionary monetary environment may exacerbate volatility. For example, a hypothetical 3% rate cut by the Fed could reduce U.S. interest costs by $2.5 trillion over five years but risks reigniting inflation above 5%, further weakening the dollar and boosting crypto demand.

Looking ahead, the 2028 halving-scheduled to reduce block rewards to 1.5625 BTC-could catalyze a new bull cycle if institutional adoption and fee market health stabilize. However, post-halving consolidation in 2029–2030 may see prices mean-revert to $120,000–$220,000 unless a new adoption wave materializes. Ethereum's competitive edge, including its proof-of-stake model and staking yields of 3%, has also fueled momentum, with Ethereum treasury companies now holding 3.5% of circulating supply.

[1] Bitcoin Price Prediction 2025-2026 And Beyond (https://coinlib.io/newsroom/price-prediction/bitcoin-price-prediction/)

[2] Bitcoin Price Prediction 2025, 2026 – 2030: How High Will (https://coinpedia.org/price-prediction/bitcoin-price-prediction/)

[3] Why Is Bitcoin Up Today: BTC Keep Hitting New All ... (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/07/10/btc-all-time-high-liveblog-is-this-run-different)

[4] Crypto, stocks enter 'new phase of trade war' as US ... (https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-stocks-new-phase-trade-war-245-tariff-escalation)

[5] Fear Grips Crypto Market as US-China Trade War ... (https://coinedition.com/bitcoin-altcoins-fall-as-us-tariff-hike-on-china-spooks-global-markets/)

[6] US-China Trade Talks Begin: What's Next ... (https://www.coingabbar.com/en/price-prediction/us-china-trade-talks-begin-what-next-for-bitcoin-and-ethereum)

[7] Better Crypto Buy: Bitcoin vs. Ethereum - The Motley Fool (https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/10/04/better-crypto-buy-bitcoin-vs-ethereum/)