Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's 2025 Gamble: Halving Optimism vs. Liquidity Headwinds at $80K

Bitcoin's price has stabilized near $91,000, sparking debate among analysts about its next move. The cryptocurrency, which recently navigated a correction phase, now faces a crossroads influenced by macroeconomic shifts, institutional activity, and on-chain dynamics. Experts and market observers are divided between cautious optimism and warnings of potential short-term volatility.

The 2024 halving event-a historical driver of Bitcoin's price cycles-has set the stage for bullish speculation. A 2025 price prediction model suggests a 30% chance of Bitcoin trading between $80,000 and $120,000, a 50% probability of reaching $120,000–$180,000, and a 20% shot at $180,000–$250,000. These ranges reflect growing institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and macroeconomic tailwinds. However, the path to such levels may not be linear. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has warned of a potential dip below $80,000 before the end of 2025, citing liquidity pressures and the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) timeline. Hayes argues that the Fed's planned cessation of QT on December 1 and increased U.S. bank lending could ease market conditions, allowing Bitcoin to stabilize around $80,000 as a key support level according to analysis.

The debate extends to broader liquidity trends. Hayes and others highlight that Bitcoin's performance is increasingly tied to global dollar liquidity rather than interest rates alone. Improved lending activity in November and the Fed's policy shift are seen as critical factors that could reduce selling pressure, even as the asset trades below $90,000. Meanwhile, on-chain data suggests resilience: exchanges are seeing declining reserves, and accumulation metrics indicate sustained buyer interest. Santiment's analysis links Bitcoin's ability to convert geopolitical shocks into long-term bullish momentum, such as the post-Israel-Iran conflict rebound to $100,000 in June 2025.

Despite these signals, risks remain. Binance's recent delisting of BTC trading pairs like GMT/BTC and ME/BTC underscores evolving risk management practices in the crypto space, which could temporarily impact liquidity. Additionally, CoinShares reported $4.92 billion in digital asset outflows over four weeks, with Bitcoin accounting for $1.27 billion of that, though inflows returned late last week according to reports. Swissblock's "Risk-Off Signal" has also declined, suggesting the worst of the selling phase may be over according to market analysis.

Looking ahead, AI-driven price models add nuance to the forecast. Platforms like Gemini and BlackBox AI project December 2025 ranges from $110,000 to $180,000, with some scenarios reaching $160,000 according to forecasts. These projections hinge on sustained institutional buying, regulatory progress, and a broader risk-on environment. Ethereum's recovery above $2,800 and anticipated upgrades like Fusaka also signal improving sentiment across the crypto ecosystem.

The coming months will test Bitcoin's ability to consolidate gains. While short-term volatility is expected, structural factors-scarcity, institutional adoption, and macroeconomic shifts-remain bullish. Investors are advised to balance patience with caution, as the $80,000 level could serve as both a floor and a psychological threshold for renewed buying.