Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's 2025 Dilemma: Bullish Projections vs. Correction Risks

Bitcoin's price trajectory in 2025 has drawn significant attention from analysts employing the Elliott Wave Theory, a technical analysis framework that identifies recurring price patterns to forecast market movements. Recent analyses suggest Bitcoin could reach $160,000 or higher by year-end, with diverging views on the sustainability of this rally into 2026.

John Glover, Chief Investment Officer at Ledn, posits that Bitcoin is in the final stages of a five-wave bullish cycle, with a target of $140,000 by late 2025 before a bearish correction in 2026. According to his Elliott Wave count, BTC is navigating impulse wave (iii) of a larger wave 5, which could peak at $130,000 in the coming weeks. A subsequent retracement to $110,000 in September would complete wave (iv), paving the way for a final push to $140,000 in wave (v). Glover's analysis contrasts with the narrative that institutional adoption via ETFs has disrupted Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycles, arguing instead that historical patterns remain relevant Coindesk^[1].

Trader Tardigrade's "Power of Three" model, meanwhile, projects a more aggressive target of $200,000. This model divides market trends into accumulation, manipulation, and distribution phases, with Bitcoin currently in the distribution phase-a precursor to sharp upward acceleration. The Elliott Wave count under this model indicates that wave five could extend beyond $200,000 after a consolidation period, mirroring patterns from prior cycles TheMarketPeriodical^[2].

Additional analyses suggest Bitcoin's recent pullback in August was a correction rather than a top. An Elliott Wave count from Investing.com argues that the August decline formed an irregular expanded flat (3-3-5 pattern), with Bitcoin remaining above critical support levels. This view implies the correction is complete, and the uptrend could resume toward $164,000 by year-end .

On-chain data further supports bullish sentiment. CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index, currently between 40-50, aligns with historical thresholds preceding significant rallies. In Q4 2024, the index broke above 50 before Bitcoin surged from $70,000 to $100,000. Sustained demand growth-driven by large holders and ETF inflows-reinforces the potential for a repeat scenario .

However, not all forecasts are uniformly bullish. CasiTrades outlines a multi-wave correction scenario where Bitcoin could dip to $77,000, triggering capital rotation into altcoins. This view highlights the risk of a bearish consolidation phase if key resistance levels, such as $120,000, fail to hold TheMarketPeriodical^[2].

The interplay of technical indicators and market psychology underscores the complexity of Bitcoin's trajectory. While the Elliott Wave Theory provides a structured approach, its interpretations vary. For instance, the recent $112,000 support level-tested multiple times-has shown resilience, with large holders accumulating at this range. A break below $108,420, however, could signal a 75% probability of the uptrend ending .

Institutional adoption remains a critical factor. ETF inflows and corporate treasury allocations have bolstered Bitcoin's demand, with over 1.45 million BTC held by ETFs and public companies. This structural shift has altered Bitcoin's market dynamics, enhancing its role as a store of value .

Despite the optimism, risks persist. Regulatory uncertainty, macroeconomic volatility, and potential U.S. government shutdowns could disrupt the bullish narrative. A sharp correction to $80,000–$100,000 is possible if institutional inflows stall or if Bitcoin fails to break above $116,000, a key threshold for transitioning into a bull market phase .

In summary, the Elliott Wave analysis paints a mixed picture for Bitcoin in 2025. While technical indicators and institutional adoption support a rally toward $160,000 or higher, structural risks and diverging expert opinions highlight the need for caution. The coming months will be pivotal in determining whether Bitcoin's bullish momentum can withstand potential headwinds.