Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's 2018 Echo: Fed Delays Spark $2B Liquidations

Bitcoin's price plunged below $86,000 this week, triggering fresh crash fears as the cryptocurrency market grapples with renewed macroeconomic pressures and shifting Federal Reserve expectations. The selloff, which saw the asset fall to as low as $80,524-its weakest level since April-has erased year-to-date gains and intensified concerns about a broader risk-off environment. Analysts point to the Fed's delayed jobs data and revised rate-cut forecasts as pivotal catalysts, with Vanguard's Sara Devereux warning in Financial Times that the central bank may only cut rates one or two more times in 2026, far below traders' prior expectations of four reductions.

The sell-off accelerated amid a global market rout, with Bitcoin's decline mirroring a 35% drop from its October peak of $126,000. CoinGlass data revealed nearly $2 billion in liquidations over 24 hours, with Bitcoin alone accounting for $964 million in forced unwinds. Short-term holders -those who acquired Bitcoin within the last 90 days-are now unwinding positions at scale, pushing realized losses to levels last seen during the 2022 FTX collapse. Glassnode metrics further underscored the severity, showing Bitcoin trading over 3.5 standard deviations below its 200-day moving average, a pattern historically linked to panic-driven crashes in 2018, 2020, and 2022.

While Bitcoin bore the brunt of the selloff, altcoins displayed relative resilience. Ether and Solana fell 14% and 10%, respectively, but some traders noted reduced selling pressure compared to October's liquidation wave. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs faced a $3.5 billion outflow in November-their worst monthly performance since launch-compounding downward pressure. Lori Calvasina of RBC Capital Markets attributed the ETF outflows to waning institutional confidence, stating, "The reversal of capital flows has negatively impacted prices".

Market participants remain divided on the outlook. On the bearish side, Bloomberg's Mike McGlone compared Bitcoin's chart to its 2018 breakdown, projecting a potential drop to $10,000. Conversely, some analysts see historical parallels offering hope. Giovanni Santostasi's power-law model suggests Bitcoin's current price near the $78,000–$82,000 range has historically triggered mid-cycle rebounds. Additionally, Bitcoin's on-chain metrics indicate a potential stabilization phase, with the 200-week moving average and realized price metrics pointing to a possible support zone in the mid-$50Ks.

The selloff has also drawn sharp commentary from high-profile figures. CNBC's Jim Cramer indirectly mocked Cathie Wood's $1 million Bitcoin prediction for 2030, calling out "crypto cheerleaders" amid the November rout. Wood, while revising her 2030 bull case downward to $1.2 million, defended her long-term thesis, citing growing institutional adoption and stablecoin usage.

As the market digests these developments, structural risks persist. The Fed's neutral rate timeline, sticky inflation, and global equity volatility-exemplified by Asia's 2.2% decline in Japan's Nikkei-suggest a prolonged risk-off sentiment. For Bitcoin to regain bullish momentum, analysts emphasize the need to reclaim key technical levels, including the $100,000 threshold and the 350-day moving average. Until then, the market remains in a defensive phase, with cautious positioning favoring over aggressive dip-buying.