Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's $200k Bet Hinges on U.S. Fiscal Chaos and ETF Frenzy

Standard Chartered has reiterated its bold forecast that Bitcoin (BTC-USD) will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, with interim targets including a potential $135,000 level by year-end Q3. The bank attributes this outlook to surging institutional demand, record ETF inflows, and Bitcoin's evolving role as a hedge against systemic risks. Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, cited historical correlations between Bitcoin and U.S. Treasury term premiums, which have strengthened since early 2024. He noted that prolonged fiscal uncertainty, such as the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, amplifies Bitcoin's appeal as a decentralized alternative to traditional assets. The shutdown has already triggered a 60% probability of lasting 10–29 days on prediction markets, with Bitcoin ETF inflows reaching $3.24 billion in the first week of October 2025-the largest weekly inflow since the ETFs' launchStandard Chartered's Bold Call: BTC Hits $200,000 Before 2026 …^[1].

The bank highlighted that Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $58 billion in net inflows since their inception, with $23 billion contributed in 2025 alone. Kendrick projected an additional $20 billion in inflows before year-end, which could sustain the $200,000 target. Corporate adoption is also a key driver, with firms like MicroStrategy and Metaplanet accumulating significant BTC reserves. For instance, Metaplanet recently added 1,005 BTC, surpassing major institutional holders. These trends align with Standard Chartered's view that Bitcoin is transitioning from a speculative asset to a core component of diversified portfoliosBitcoin Rockets To $123,000 As Standard Chartered Forecasts …^[5].

The U.S. government shutdown has further intensified Bitcoin's macroeconomic narrative. Unlike the 2018–2019 shutdown, which had minimal impact on crypto markets, the current environment sees Bitcoin closely tied to U.S. fiscal risk metrics. Kendrick emphasized that Bitcoin's positive correlation with Treasury term premiums-measuring the yield premium for long-term bonds-has strengthened as investors seek alternatives to fiat currencies. This dynamic is compounded by the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts, which could further weaken the dollar and boost demand for Bitcoin as a hedge against inflationStandard Chartered Reaffirms Bitcoin Price Target of …^[2].

Corporate and institutional demand is accelerating amid regulatory clarity and improved market infrastructure. Standard Chartered noted that Bitcoin ETFs have outperformed gold ETFs in recent months, with spot ETF inflows now rivaling gold's dominance in safe-haven trades. The bank also pointed to the 2024 halving event, which reduced Bitcoin's supply issuance by 50%, as a structural tailwind. With daily ETF purchases potentially exceeding new BTC mined, the market is primed for price discovery as supply tightens.

Analysts at JPMorgan and Bitwise echoed Standard Chartered's optimism, with the former calling Bitcoin undervalued relative to gold and the latter citing rising institutional interest in custody solutions. The technical outlook also supports the bullish case: Bitcoin has broken through key resistance levels, with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement at $120,853 recently cleared. On-chain data shows reduced exchange liquidity, suggesting upward pressure if demand persists. Standard Chartered's $135,000 Q3 target hinges on sustained ETF inflows and a prolonged shutdown, which could extend Bitcoin's role as a fiscal risk hedge into December.