Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's 2.4% Active Supply Suggests Further Gains as Holders Avoid Selling

Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase after recently setting a new all-time high above $123,000, with prices currently fluctuating between $117,000 and $120,000. Despite this sideways movement, underlying on-chain data suggests the market may still have room to trend higher. Key metrics such as the percentage of supply active in the past 180 days (% Supply Active) indicate that long-term holders are maintaining a cautious approach, with limited selling pressure observed even as Bitcoin nears record levels [1]. This metric has historically surged during major bull cycles, reaching 20% in spring 2024 as Bitcoin approached $70,000 and 18% in December 2024 when it broke through $100,000 [1]. The current reading of +2.4% as of June 2025, while an improvement from negative territory, remains significantly below prior peaks, signaling that the market may still be in the early stages of a distribution phase [1].

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. highlights that the gradual rise in % Supply Active reflects a shift in holder behavior but emphasizes that the pace lags behind historical trends. “The current trajectory suggests we are far from entering a heightened distribution phase,” Adler notes, citing comparisons to previous cycles where active supply surged to 18–20% ahead of major market tops [1]. He anticipates a potential climb to 8–10% if Bitcoin sustains levels above $120,000, with the 18–20% threshold re-emerging only in a late-cycle context. This analysis aligns with the observation that long-term holders are not yet incentivized to sell, which could provide structural support for further price appreciation.

Conflicting forecasts underscore uncertainty about Bitcoin’s immediate trajectory. While some analysts predict targets of $250,000 or even $1 million, others, including Glassnode’s James Check, question whether $200,000 by 2025 is achievable given weak buying volume [1][7]. These diverging views, however, do not negate the broader signal of prolonged holder retention. Recent movements, such as $150 million in dormant Bitcoin re-entering circulation via SpaceX, indicate shifting sentiment but fall short of the aggressive outflows seen in prior bull runs [3]. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price of $118,535 as of press time reflects a 16% gain over four weeks, with no significant profit-taking observed from large holders like the “Satoshi-Era” group, which shifted $9.5 billion earlier in the year [1].

The muted supply activity contrasts sharply with historical patterns. In 2024, % Supply Active spiked to 20% and 18% ahead of major peaks, whereas the current increase is minimal. This lag suggests that widespread selling pressure remains distant, giving Bitcoin more room to appreciate before reaching a critical inflection point. Investors are advised to monitor the 8–10% active supply benchmark as a potential indicator of evolving market dynamics. If accumulation resumes and new capital enters, the stage could be set for another upward move, provided holders continue to resist near-term profit-taking.

Sources:

[1] [On-Chain Signal Suggests the Bitcoin Top Is Not In Yet](https://coinedition.com/on-chain-data-signal-bitcoin-top-not-in-yet-analyst/)

[3] [Crypto Today: Bitcoin consolidates, Ethereum and XRP](https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-977525-20250722)

[7] [James Check Doubts $200K Bitcoin in 2025 Amid Bull-Bear](https://bitemycoin.com/news/james-check-doubts-200k-bitcoin-in-2025/)