Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's $150K Ascent Hangs on Bull-Bear Technical Tug-of-War

Bitcoin's price has retested key technical levels, with on-chain indicators and analyst projections suggesting the cryptocurrency could continue its upward trajectory toward $150,000. Recent data highlights a mix of bullish and cautionary signals, as traders and analysts weigh the potential for a sustained rally against historical patterns and market dynamics.

On-chain metrics indicate that Bitcoin's short-term holder (STH) cost basis currently sits near $117,000, with a breakout above $109,000–$110,000 potentially propelling the asset toward $117,000 or higher Cointelegraph: Bitcoin’s STH cost basis suggests $117K is the next stop for BTC price^[1]. The market value realized value (MVRV) ratio also suggests room for further gains before reaching an overvaluation threshold near $123,000. Meanwhile, long-term holders (LTHs) have begun distributing accumulated supplies, selling 52,000 BTC at $118,000-the first major distribution event since months of steady accumulation Cointelegraph: Bitcoin Price $150K: Golden Cross Confirmed as Analysts Predict Parabolic Rally^[3]. This activity aligns with historical patterns observed during previous bull cycles, such as 2024–2025.

Technical analysis reinforces the potential for a significant price move. A golden cross-a bullish signal where the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day average-has recently formed, historically preceding major rallies. Analysts like Ali Martinez and Chain Mind project a $150,000 target by year-end, citing the CVDD model and historical parallels to the 2017 cycle Cointelegraph: Bitcoin Price $150K: Golden Cross Confirmed as Analysts Predict Parabolic Rally^[3]Cryptonews: Bitcoin Price Prediction: Golden Cross Pattern Targets $150K Rally^[5]. Glassnode's James Check, however, cautions that exceeding $150,000 may not be sustainable, noting that speculative fervor often precedes corrections Cointelegraph: Bitcoin could top $150K before retrace in repeat of 2017 cycle^[4].

Market sentiment remains mixed. Institutional demand, as measured by the Coinbase Premium Index, has cooled after a 62-day positive streak, while ETF inflows dropped 80% to $496 million last week Cointelegraph: Bitcoin Price $150K: Golden Cross Confirmed as Analysts Predict Parabolic Rally^[3]. Despite this, 96.9% of Bitcoin's supply remains above cost basis, and technical indicators like Bollinger Bands suggest compressed volatility ahead of a major move Cointelegraph: Bitcoin Price $150K: Golden Cross Confirmed as Analysts Predict Parabolic Rally^[3]. Short-term holders face resistance near $113,600–$115,600, where underwater positions could trigger selling pressure if price fails to break above these levels .

The path to $150,000 is not without challenges. A consolidation phase or short-term pullback is anticipated, with Bitcoin's RSI and Stochastic Oscillator entering overbought territory. Traders are advised to monitor key support at $93,500 and resistance at $110,000, with a clean breakout potentially signaling a run toward $125,000–$150,000 Coingape: Bitcoin Price to $150K: Golden Cross Confirmed as Traders Target ATH^[7]. Analysts like Gert van Lagen remain optimistic, projecting a $300,000–$320,000 target by the bull cycle's end, though such forecasts are contingent on macroeconomic conditions and regulatory developments Btcc.com: Bitcoin’s Golden Cross Hints at $150K Surge^[6].