Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's $14B Exodus to Long-Term Custody Signals Reduced Sell Pressure, Potential Price Surge

Bitcoin exchange balances have plummeted to a six-year low, with over 2.83 million BTC-valued at approximately $14 billion-leaving centralized exchanges in recent weeks, according to data from blockchain analytics platforms Glassnode and CryptoQuant. The decline, which mirrors levels last seen in early 2019, signals a significant shift in investor behavior as holders move assets into long-term custody, institutional treasuries, or self-custody wallets. This trend has reduced the "available supply" of Bitcoin on exchanges, historically linked to reduced short-term sell pressure and potential price upside.

The outflows have intensified since mid-April 2025, with institutional investors and corporate treasuries accelerating accumulation. Over 100,000 BTC was transferred from exchanges to long-term storage between April and July, driven by growing adoption of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. Notably, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen sustained inflows, with over $1.6 billion entering trust custody wallets in recent weeks. These flows align with broader market dynamics, including a surge in demand for Bitcoin as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainties and central bank rate cuts.

Market analysts highlight the implications of dwindling exchange reserves. VanEck's Matthew Sigel noted that "exchanges are running dry," with some over-the-counter (OTC) desks projecting exhaustion within hours if the current price trajectory continues. The reduced liquidity on exchanges has also amplified volatility, as buyers compete for limited available supply. Historical patterns suggest that such supply shocks often precede price rallies, with Bitcoin's previous surge in 2019 following a similar decline in exchange balances.

The price action reflects this dynamic. Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $125,700 in early October 2025, surpassing its prior peak of $124,500. The rally has been fueled by a combination of institutional demand, ETF inflows, and a shift in market sentiment toward risk-on assets. On-chain metrics, such as the short-term holder (STH) realized price and the MVRV ratio, indicate that long-term holders remain profitable and show no signs of selling, further supporting bullish momentum.

Looking ahead, the market faces a critical juncture. Over $16.4 billion in short positions are concentrated near the $125,000–$127,000 range, according to CoinGlass data, creating a potential short squeeze if prices break through key resistance levels. Analysts like Ali Martinez of Glassnode emphasize that holding above $112,000 remains crucial for sustaining the upward trend. A successful breach of the 161.8% Fibonacci extension at $127,367 could trigger a cascade of liquidations, amplifying upward pressure. Conversely, a failure to maintain support at $112,000 risks a pullback toward $105,000–$108,000, where prior demand zones exist.

The broader macroeconomic context also plays a role. The U.S. dollar's weakening and a decline in real yields have bolstered Bitcoin's appeal as an inflation hedge. ETF creation flows and derivatives activity suggest that structural demand remains intact, with BlackRock's IBIT ETF leading the charge. However, market participants caution that liquidity constraints and unexpected macroeconomic shocks could disrupt the current trajectory.