Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's $146k Target Looms But Breakout Risks Hang In Balance

Bitcoin (BTC) is forming a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders (H&S) pattern on its 1W chart, a technical indicator historically associated with significant price reversals. The pattern, which began after the 2021 price drop, has a neckline resistance at $113,378. If Bitcoin sustains a breakout above this level, it could target $120,000, as per the measured move from the pattern's head depth. Analysts note that the $100,000 level remains critical, acting as both a psychological floor and a technical support point. A sustained close below this level could erode trader confidence and trigger further declines.

Technical indicators reinforce the potential for a bullish reversal. The inverse H&S pattern's right shoulder, formed at $74,000 in March 2025, aligns with the current price trajectory. Traders are monitoring the neckline at $113,378 for confirmation of the breakout. If Bitcoin holds above this level, the measured target of $146,000 becomes plausible, calculated by adding the depth of the head ($61,800) to the neckline. This projection is supported by historical October seasonality, where Bitcoin has historically gained between 10% and 40% during the month.

However, risks remain. The Federal Reserve's upcoming inflation data, including CPI and PPI reports, could influence Bitcoin's trajectory. A hawkish policy shift, driven by higher-than-expected inflation, might dampen demand for risk assets like Bitcoin. Conversely, dovish signals could bolster the bullish case. Additionally, on-chain activity shows mixed signals: large holders have initiated selling, and liquidity in perpetual futures markets has tightened, increasing volatility risk.

Short-term traders are also using Fibonacci retracement levels to identify entry and exit points. The 0.618 (61.8%) level, part of the Golden Zone (0.382–0.618), is a key area for potential reversals. If Bitcoin retraces to $63,137.70 (0.382 level) or $67,204.40 (0.618 level), it could find support and resume its uptrend. Stop-loss orders are recommended at $56,555, the previous low, while take-profit targets align with Fibonacci extension levels, such as $84,436.50 (1.618 extension).

Analysts caution that Fibonacci levels and chart patterns are probabilistic tools, not certainties. For instance, while the inverse H&S pattern suggests a $146,000 target, its validity depends on Bitcoin holding above the neckline and avoiding a breakdown below the right shoulder. Market participants are advised to combine technical analysis with fundamental factors, such as macroeconomic data and geopolitical developments, to refine their strategies.

The broader market context adds complexity. Bitcoin's recent 3% rally to $71,000, its highest in four months, has reignited bullish sentiment. However, the pattern's success hinges on maintaining momentum above key levels. If the $100,000 support holds, the bullish case strengthens; a breakdown, however, could extend the correction to $74,600 or even $52,000, as per deeper Fibonacci retracement levels.

In summary, Bitcoin's technical setup suggests a potential for a major rally following a confirmed breakout above the inverse H&S neckline. While the $120,000–$146,000 range is a primary target, traders must remain vigilant about risks, including Federal Reserve policy shifts, liquidity constraints, and on-chain selling pressure. The coming weeks will be pivotal in determining whether the pattern unfolds as projected.

[1] Mind Math Money (https://www.mindmathmoney.com/articles/how-to-use-fibonacci-retracement-in-tradingview-draw-fibonacci-levels-golden-zone-and-trading-strategy)

[5] FX Leaders (https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2025/09/08/bitcoin-eyes-120k-breakout-but-key-risks-remain/)

[7] Coinotag (https://en.coinotag.com/bitcoin-inverse-head-and-shoulders-suggests-possible-breakout-toward-146000-amid-october-seasonality/)