Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's $130K Hurdle: Breakthrough or Bust?

Bitcoin's price trajectory has drawn significant attention from analysts, with on-chain metrics suggesting a potential move toward $130,000. According to CryptoQuant's Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (STH-MVRV) analysis, Bitcoin currently resides within a defined volatility corridor, with the upper boundary near $130,000 acting as a key resistance zone. This level, marked by the +1σ deviation in the STH-MVRV model, is historically associated with profit-taking by short-term holders, who tend to lock in gains as prices approach this threshold.

The STH-MVRV corridor measures the profitability of recent buyers, providing insights into market behavior and potential price inflection points. As of October 2, 2025, Bitcoin has remained above its average realized price since early 2024, indicating sustained buyer support and resilient market sentiment. Analysts note that the cryptocurrency's ability to recover quickly from minor dips-coupled with consistent demand-suggests a healthy market structure. This dynamic reinforces the likelihood of gradual upside movement, provided current conditions persist.

Short-term holder behavior is a critical factor in this analysis. CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler highlighted that the +1σ level around $130,000 serves as a natural zone for profit realization, where selling pressure could temporarily cap further gains. However, the same metrics indicate that Bitcoin's position within the corridor reflects equilibrium, with buyers absorbing dips and maintaining upward momentum. This balance between supply and demand underscores the market's structural strength, even as it approaches key resistance levels.

Market structure analysis further supports the $130,000 target. The rapid recovery of Bitcoin from short-term declines, combined with elevated buying pressure, signals that the market is effectively absorbing downward moves. Analysts argue that this pattern, observed in recent months, aligns with historical bull cycles, where gradual price appreciation is often followed by consolidation phases at critical thresholds. The STH-MVRV model, when combined with volume and realized price data, provides a framework for identifying these phases and assessing the probability of continuation or consolidation.

While the $130,000 level is widely cited as a near-term target, analysts caution that it is not a guaranteed outcome. The STH-MVRV corridor should be used in conjunction with broader macroeconomic indicators and on-chain activity to form a comprehensive outlook. For instance, a breakdown below the +0.5σ band at $109,858 could signal a deeper correction, while sustained buying pressure above this level would reinforce the bullish case. Additionally, external factors such as regulatory developments and macroeconomic trends could influence Bitcoin's trajectory, particularly as institutional adoption continues to grow.

The implications of reaching $130,000 extend beyond price targets. If Bitcoin successfully navigates the upper boundary of the STH-MVRV corridor, it could trigger a wave of profit-taking by short-term holders, potentially leading to a temporary consolidation phase. However, the broader market structure remains intact, with institutional demand and strategic accumulation patterns suggesting continued long-term growth. Analysts emphasize the importance of monitoring on-chain metrics, such as realized capital and wallet activity, to gauge the sustainability of current momentum.

In summary, Bitcoin's positioning within the STH-MVRV corridor, combined with resilient market structure and consistent buyer support, points to a potential move toward $130,000. While this level represents a key resistance zone, the interplay of short-term holder behavior and macroeconomic factors will ultimately determine the asset's next phase. Investors are advised to track on-chain data and volume patterns for signs of continuation or consolidation, as the market navigates this critical inflection point.

Source: [1] Bitcoin May Move Toward $130K as CryptoQuant's STH‑MVRV Corridor Indicates Market Balance (https://en.coinotag.com/bitcoin-may-move-toward-130k-as-cryptoquants-sth%E2%80%91mvrv-corridor-indicates-market-balance/)

[2] Bitcoin MVRV Pricing Bands Hint At $130K, But Only If This Support Holds (https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:8bbf7cb1e094b:0-bitcoin-mvrv-pricing-bands-hint-at-130k-but-only-if-this-support-holds/)

[3] Bitcoin Price Likely to Hit $130K Before Serious Profit-Taking Kicks In (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-likely-to-hit-dollar130k-before-serious-profit-taking-kicks-in)

[4] Bitcoin Bull Market Intact as Analysts Flag $130K Target (https://coinedition.com/bitcoin-bull-market-intact-as-analysts-flag-130k-target/)

[5] Bitcoin Enters "Uptober" 2025: Can History's Seasonal Rally Repeat? (https://www.cointribune.com/en/bitcoin-enters-uptober-2025-can-historys-seasonal-rally-repeat/)

[6] Bitcoin Profit-Taking Surges as New Whales Realize Gains (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-whales-profit-taking-2025-surge)

[7] Bitcoin Price Predictions 2025: Analysts Forecast (https://www.coingecko.com/learn/bitcoin-price-predictions-expert-forecasts)

[8] Bitcoin MVRV Pricing Bands Hint At $130K, But Only If This Support Holds (https://www.newsbtc.com/news/bitcoin/bitcoin-mvrv-pricing-bands-hint-at-130k-but-only-if-this-support-holds/)

[9] Bitcoin Price Forecast: October Rally Targets $125K (https://www.coingabbar.com/en/price-prediction/bitcoin-price-prediction-october-rally-2025)