Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin’s 13% short-term profit ratio signals market fragility, correction risks

Bitcoin’s recent price action above $118,000 has sparked renewed optimism among long-term investors, yet a stark divergence emerges for short-term holders. Data reveals that only 13% of Bitcoin positions held under one year are currently profitable [1]. This statistic, despite the asset’s elevated price, underscores growing caution among traders and raises questions about market stability ahead of a potential correction [2]. Analysts attribute this dynamic to a combination of accumulation by institutional investors and profit-taking by retail traders, which has exacerbated short-term volatility [3].

The 13% profit ratio highlights a critical inflection point. Historically, high levels of “supply in profit” have signaled increased selling pressure, as holders with unrealized gains become more susceptible to market fluctuations [4]. This metric, currently in a “caution zone,” suggests that even minor dips could trigger widespread liquidation, potentially stoking further downward momentum [5]. Jonathan Hobbs, CFA, notes that over 95% of Bitcoin’s total supply is already mined, amplifying the impact of short-term trading activity on price dynamics [6].

Technical indicators corroborate the tension between bullish fundamentals and bearish near-term sentiment. Bitcoin’s 1.618 golden Fibonacci extension—often a key resistance level—has temporarily rejected the price, creating a consolidation phase [7]. Meanwhile, the asset’s five consecutive 6-month green candles indicate a sustained bull trend, albeit at a slower pace than the 2017 cycle [8]. The interplay between these signals suggests a market in transition, where long-term confidence clashes with short-term uncertainty.

Market participants are also scrutinizing broader macroeconomic conditions. The U.S. dollar’s recent 10.82% decline over six months has bolstered demand for alternative assets like Bitcoin, yet a tighter yield curve and rising Treasury volatility could disrupt this narrative [9]. Additionally, Ethereum’s rebound in dominance metrics and the Nasdaq’s bearish RSI divergence hint at a broader recalibration of risk appetite [10].

The 13% profit threshold for short-term holders serves as a barometer of market fragility. While institutional accumulation and macroeconomic tailwinds support a higher price target, the concentration of unrealized gains among short-term positions creates a feedback loop. Any sharp selloff could accelerate profit-taking, triggering a self-fulfilling cycle of downward pressure [11]. Analysts emphasize the need for caution, advising investors to monitor key levels like the 200-day moving average and Fibonacci retracement targets, which could dictate Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory [12].

As the market navigates this crossroads, the tension between long-term bullish fundamentals and short-term profit-taking remains unresolved. The coming weeks will test whether Bitcoin’s rally can maintain its momentum or if the “calm before the storm” will give way to a more pronounced correction.

References:

[1] NewsBTC, [https://www.newsbtc.com/news/short-term-bitcoin-holders-only-13-in-profit-a-calm-before-the-storm/](https://www.newsbtc.com/news/short-term-bitcoin-holders-only-13-in-profit-a-calm-before-the-storm/)

[2] Jonathan Hobbs, CFA, "Bitcoin Supply in Profit % in the 'Caution Zone'", [https://www.newsbtc.com/analysis/bitcoin-supply-profit-caution-zone/](https://www.newsbtc.com/analysis/bitcoin-supply-profit-caution-zone/)

[3] Jonathan Hobbs, CFA, "Bitcoin 6-Month Candles: 5 Green In a Row", [https://www.newsbtc.com/analysis/bitcoin-6-month-candles-green/](https://www.newsbtc.com/analysis/bitcoin-6-month-candles-green/)

[4] Jonathan Hobbs, CFA, "Downside Fibonacci Targets (If Bitcoin Has Already Topped)", [https://www.newsbtc.com/analysis/downside-fibonacci-targets-bitcoin-topped/](https://www.newsbtc.com/analysis/downside-fibonacci-targets-bitcoin-topped/)

[5] Jonathan Hobbs, CFA, "Bitcoin’s 200-Day Moving Average Test: CME Futures on the Line", [https://www.newsbtc.com/analysis/bitcoin-200-day-moving-average-test/](https://www.newsbtc.com/analysis/bitcoin-200-day-moving-average-test/)

[6] Jonathan Hobbs, CFA, "Bitcoin Supply: Over 95% Has Already Been Mined", [https://www.newsbtc.com/analysis/bitcoin-supply-95-mined/](https://www.newsbtc.com/analysis/bitcoin-supply-95-mined/)

[7] Jonathan Hobbs, CFA, "Bitcoin Hits Golden Fibonacci Extension of Last Bull Run", [https://www.newsbtc.com/analysis/bitcoin-golden-fibonacci-extension/](https://www.newsbtc.com/analysis/bitcoin-golden-fibonacci-extension/)

[8] Jonathan Hobbs, CFA, "US Dollar Drop: Biggest 6-Month Red Candle Since 1991", [https://www.newsbtc.com/analysis/us-dollar-drop-6-month-candle/](https://www.newsbtc.com/analysis/us-dollar-drop-6-month-candle/)

[9] Jonathan Hobbs, CFA, "US 10-Year Treasury Yield (Head & Shoulders Breakdown)", [https://www.newsbtc.com/analysis/us-10-year-treasury-yield-breakdown/](https://www.newsbtc.com/analysis/us-10-year-treasury-yield-breakdown/)

[10] Jonathan Hobbs, CFA, "Ethereum Dominance (ETH.D) Bounces After All-Time Low", [https://www.newsbtc.com/analysis/ethereum-dominance-bounces/](https://www.newsbtc.com/analysis/ethereum-dominance-bounces/)

[11] Jonathan Hobbs, CFA, "S&P 500 Flashes Bearish Signal: Stock Market Drop Possible", [https://www.newsbtc.com/analysis/s-p-500-bearish-signal/](https://www.newsbtc.com/analysis/s-p-500-bearish-signal/)

[12] Jonathan Hobbs, CFA, "How to Tell If the Next Bitcoin Breakout Isn’t a Fakeout", [https://www.newsbtc.com/analysis/bitcoin-breakout-fakeout/](https://www.newsbtc.com/analysis/bitcoin-breakout-fakeout/)