Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's $13.8B Options Expiry: The Bull Market Crossroads

Bitcoin’s price has wavered near the $115,000 level amid heightened uncertainty over the outcome of the $13.8 billion in Bitcoin options set to expire on August 29. The expiration is now widely seen as a pivotal moment that could determine whether the recent 9.7% correction marks the end of the bull run or a temporary pause. As of the latest data, Bitcoin has dipped below $115,000, with bears intensifying pressure ahead of the expiry. Bears hold significant incentive to push prices lower, particularly below $114,000, where only 12% of call options are positioned. By contrast, 21% of put options are concentrated at $115,000 or higher, especially at $112,000, suggesting further downward momentum is likely [1].

The open interest for Bitcoin options is skewed in favor of calls, with $7.44 billion in buy options compared to $6.37 billion in put options. However, the actual outcome will be determined by Bitcoin’s price at 8:00 am UTC on August 29. Deribit dominates the options market with an 85% share, followed by CME and OKX. The imbalance in open interest means that if Bitcoin remains below $114,000, put options are likely to generate greater profits for bearish traders, while bulls will face disappointment, especially if prices fail to reclaim $116,000 [1].

Market analysts have identified five potential price ranges that could influence the outcome of the options expiry. Between $105,000 and $110,000, puts are favored by a $2.45 billion margin, while between $110,100 and $114,000, the put advantage narrows to $1.5 billion. At $114,100 to $116,000, the put edge is $360 million, and between $116,100 and $118,000, calls begin to outperform by $460 million. For bullish strategies to succeed, Bitcoin must trade above $116,000 by the expiry date. The most contested battleground, however, remains at $114,000, where bears are expected to exert maximum pressure [1].

In the broader market context, Bitcoin has broken below a rising wedge pattern and the 50 EMA, indicating a bearish structure. On-chain data suggests that whales and institutions are accumulating during the dip, with one whale purchasing 200 BTC ($23 million) as a sign of confidence. Notably, Bitcoin legend Adam Back remarked that dips are opportunities to transfer BTC from weak hands to stronger ones. Meanwhile, metrics such as the Bid-Ask Ratio, slippage spikes, and retail long positions are being closely watched for signs of a reversal. If the Bid-Ask Ratio remains positive and retail long positions drop below 60%, a potential bullish pivot could form [2].

Adding to the uncertainty, Eric Trump, son of former U.S. President Donald Trump, recently tweeted “buy the dip,” while reportedly purchasing significant amounts of ETH and wrapped BTC. His family’s involvement in the crypto space, through initiatives like World Liberty Financial and American Bitcoin, has raised questions about the influence of political actors on market sentiment. While some see this as a sign of institutional confidence, others are cautious about potential political interference or manipulation [3].

The coming days will be critical for Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Traders will be watching for a reaction to the US Federal Reserve’s comments on rate cuts and for Bitcoin to reclaim the 50 EMA. If the price stabilizes and reverses above key support levels—such as the 111-day SMA at $109.6k—long-term holders may gain further confidence. However, a breakdown below $112k could trigger further selling pressure. Whether Bitcoin consolidates or breaks lower will depend not only on the options expiry but also on broader macroeconomic and geopolitical developments.

Source: [1] Bitcoin Bull Market Hinges On $13.8 Billion Options Expiry (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-s-13-8b-options-expiry-puts-bulls-on-edge-ahead-of-key-test) [2] Bitcoin's price drops below $115K – Watch out for THESE 4 ... (https://ambcrypto.com/bitcoins-price-drops-below-115k-watch-out-for-these-4-reversal-signs) [3] Eric Trump says "buy the dip" as BTC drops to $115K (https://www.reddit.com/r/CoinBase/comments/1mws10o/eric_trump_says_buy_the_dip_as_btc_drops_to_115k/)