Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's $13.3B Options Expiry Hinges on 15% Rally to Save Key Bets

Bitcoin Faces $13.3B Options Expiry Amid Market Pressure

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has plunged over 30% from its October peak above $126,000, trading near $87,080 as a confluence of ETF outflows, stablecoin liquidity declines, and aggressive leverage unwinds weigh on the market according to analysis. The asset's two-month drawdown—the steepest since mid-2022—has outperformed traditional benchmarks, with the S&P 500 down 2.5% and the Nasdaq 4% over the same period according to analysis. November alone saw $3.5 billion withdrawn from Bitcoin ETFs, the largest monthly outflow since February, as products like iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Grayscale's GBTC posted multi-day redemptions according to analysis. Analysts estimate the market now requires $1 billion weekly in fresh inflows to push Bitcoin up 4%, a threshold far below current demand according to analysis.

The selloff has intensified ahead of a $13.3 billion options expiry on December 26, 2025, with an institutional trader placing a $1.74 billion call condor bet targeting a price range of $100,000 to $118,000. This structure, executed on Deribit via Paradigm, profits if Bitcoin lands between $106,000 and $112,000 at expiry but caps gains beyond $118,000 according to market analysis. The trade dominates the December expiry, with the $100,000 strike leading in open interest at 15,517 BTC, followed by $112,000 and $106,000 strikes according to market data. Market observers note that Bitcoin must rally ~15% from current levels to reach the lower end of the profit zone, a hurdle that underscores the asset's fragility according to market analysis.

The ETF outflows have exacerbated liquidity challenges, with stablecoin market capitalization shrinking $4.6 billion since November 1 and net crypto-to-fiat outflows hitting $800 million last week according to analysis. On-chain data reveals divergent behavior among Bitcoin holders, as mid-tier "whales" (wallets holding 100–1,000 BTC) increased their holdings by 0.47% since November 11, while large holders (>1,000 BTC) reduced exposure by 1.5% in October according to on-chain data. This redistribution, driven by long-term holders offloading assets to ETFs and retail investors, has raised concerns about future selloffs deepening as "weak hands" absorb supply according to Cointelegraph analysis.

Despite the turmoil, signs of stabilization are emerging. Bitcoin's 14-day relative strength index (RSI) has fallen to 32, nearing oversold territory, while the cost of downside protection via options has dropped to 4.5% from a 2025 high of 11% according to market data. "This indicates the level of stress has come down significantly, and investors expect we've seen the bottom for now," said Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets according to market commentary. Short-term holders, however, remain in a capitulation phase, with their SOPR (spend output profit ratio) near zero—a historical indicator of potential mid-term reversals according to market data.

The market's trajectory will also hinge on macroeconomic developments. While the Federal Reserve's December rate decision looms, traders have priced in an 80% chance of a cut after earlier uncertainty according to market analysis. Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq 100, now above 0.72, suggests institutional investors still view it as part of the equity risk complex rather than a macro hedge according to analysis. Meanwhile, the SEC's recent approval of ether ETF options—specifically for BlackRock's ETHA—signals a broader regulatory shift that could reshape crypto trading dynamics according to Coindesk reporting.