Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's $126K High: A Precursor to 2026 Gains or the Cycle's True Peak?

The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has long served as a critical barometer for economic health, with its September 2025 report ISM® PMI® Reports underscoring continued expansion in the sector. This data has sparked renewed debate among analysts about the trajectory of Bitcoin's current bull cycle, which historically follows a four-year pattern tied to halving events. While Bitcoin's last halving occurred in April 2023, recent market dynamics suggest the cycle may extend beyond its typical timeline, defying historical norms.

Bitcoin's price action has traditionally aligned with a predictable rhythm: a year-long buildup before halving, a peak around 18 months later, and a subsequent six-month correction. By this logic, October–November 2025 should mark the cycle's apex. However, Bitcoin's October 6 all-time high of $126,300, according to MarketScreener, has left investors and analysts divided over whether this was the peak or merely a precursor to further gains. Cryptocurrency analyst Colin Talks Crypto argues that Bitcoin's delayed response to gold's recent surge—historically a precursor to BTC rallies—could signal an extended cycle, according to BitcoinSistemi. Gold, which has surged to catch up with global M2 money supply, often precedes Bitcoin's moves by 80 days, according to Coin Edition, suggesting a potential BTC breakout as early as late December 2025.

The ISM PMI's indication of sustained economic expansion, based on ISM PMI reports, adds another layer to this analysis. Strong manufacturing activity typically correlates with risk-on sentiment, which could prolong Bitcoin's bull run as investors seek high-return assets. This aligns with historical patterns where Bitcoin's performance lags broader economic indicators but amplifies their momentum in later stages, as noted by MarketScreener. However, the weakening correlation between Bitcoin and Global M2 in recent months, highlighted by Coin Edition, introduces uncertainty. Analysts warn that if liquidity tightens or gold's momentum wanes, Bitcoin's rally could stall, pushing the peak into early 2026.

Bold price predictions abound. BitMine Chairman Tom Lee posits Bitcoin could reach $1.6–$2 million if it matches gold's total market capitalization in a Yahoo Finance report, while Michael Saylor envisions a $21 million target within 21 years, as discussed in the same Yahoo Finance piece. These forecasts hinge on Bitcoin's adoption as a mainstream store of value and institutional investment trends. Yet skeptics argue such valuations require unprecedented global financial shifts, noting Bitcoin's 660% gain since November 2022 pales compared to past cycles' 9,645% rallies, a point raised by MarketScreener.

For now, the market remains in a late-stage accumulation phase, with large holders (the "Dolphin cohort") controlling 26% of Bitcoin's supply, according to a Benzinga roundup. On-chain data suggests short-term volatility but long-term bullish fundamentals, a trend Benzinga also highlights. As the ISM PMI and gold's movements continue to shape macroeconomic narratives, Bitcoin's next move will likely hinge on whether liquidity remains abundant and gold sustains its upward trajectory. Investors, meanwhile, brace for a winter of speculation, with the possibility of a final, dramatic rally—or a correction—looming just ahead.