Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's $125K Make-or-Break Moment: Bull Run or Bear Market?

Bitcoin and Ethereum face critical technical junctures as market participants grapple with the aftermath of a $19 billion liquidation event triggered by U.S.-China trade tensions. Analysts and traders are closely monitoring price behavior around key resistance and support levels, with diverging forecasts for near-term trajectories.

Bitcoin (BTC) has stabilized above $115,000 after a sharp correction to $102,000 following U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports . Ledn CIO John Glover warned that failing to break above $125,000-a level tested twice in July and briefly surpassed on October 6-could signal the start of a bear market Bitcoin’s $125K Resistance: Analyst Warns Failure Could^[1]. Conversely, a sustained rally above this threshold could drive prices toward $145,000 by year-end, according to Glover's Elliott wave analysis. Technical indicators show improvement, with the RSI approaching neutral levels (48) and MACD lines edging into bullish territory Daily Crypto Signals: Bitcoin and Ethereum Rally as US-China Trade Tensions Ease^[5]. However, volatility remains elevated, and a break below $119,345 could trigger a correction toward $117,500 or $113,000 Crypto Markets Reel from $19 Billion Crash Amidst Intensifying US-China Trade War Fears^[4].

Ethereum (ETH) has rebounded to $4,142 after a 14.2% plunge to $3,742 during the flash crash . Analysts highlight its relative stability compared to altcoins like Solana (SOL), which fell 20% in the same period. Ether's derivatives markets have normalized, with funding rates returning to balanced levels and spot ETFs adding $6 billion in inflows for October . Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted that a sustained move above $4,500 could reinforce Ethereum's institutional appeal, supported by $23.5 billion in ETF holdings and $15.5 billion in options open interest .

BNB and XRP have shown recovery, with BNB up 14% and XRP trading at $2.54 as of October 13 . Institutional activity has also picked up, including Marathon Digital Holdings purchasing $45.9 million in Bitcoin via FalconX . However, broader market sentiment remains cautious. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index hit "Extreme Fear" levels during the crash, and some traders have shifted focus to gold amid prolonged geopolitical uncertainty .

Bitcoin's 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $112,000 remains a critical support level, with analysts like BitBull emphasizing its role as a "bull-bear line since 2023" BTC recovers from massive dip, eyes $120k; Check forecast^[3]. For Ethereum, the 200 SMA at $3,800 and the 50 SMA at $4,300 suggest a bullish bias if $4,500 is cleared. Derivatives data also indicates rising open interest and positive funding rates, though overleveraged positions remain a risk Crypto Markets Reel from $19 Billion Crash Amidst Intensifying US-China Trade War Fears^[4].

The immediate outlook hinges on whether Bitcoin can reclaim and hold $120,000, a level that would validate the bullish case for a parabolic move. If successful, the S&P 500's recovery from recent losses and broader risk-on sentiment could further bolster crypto markets . Conversely, a breakdown below $119,345 could trigger a retest of $108,150–$105,000 support zones Crypto Markets Reel from $19 Billion Crash Amidst Intensifying US-China Trade War Fears^[4]. Analysts caution that while institutional liquidity is returning, the market remains vulnerable to policy-driven shocks, particularly if U.S.-China trade tensions escalate further.