Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin’s $122K Threshold in Focus as Analysts Warn of Key Breakout or Decline

Bitcoin’s price action has intensified focus on the $122,000 threshold, a level analysts and on-chain metrics suggest could determine the trajectory of its ongoing bull phase. Over the past week, Bitcoin has fluctuated between $116,000 and $119,000, with no decisive breakouts recorded. AMBCrypto’s analysis highlights that the cryptocurrency remains in a consolidation phase, with a potential short-term decline anticipated before any upward move gains momentum [1].

The $122,000 level has emerged as a critical resistance point. According to the Long-Term Power Law chart from Alphractal, breaching this level would signal sustained bullish sentiment, while a failure to do so could prolong the current consolidation pattern or trigger a downward trend [2]. Analysts from AMBCrypto note that the price may dip further in the short term, creating conditions for a test of $122,000 [1]. This projection aligns with on-chain data from CoinGlass, which tracks liquidity clusters near $116,000 that could act as both a magnet for downward pressure and a potential support zone for a rebound [3].

Key indicators suggest heightened volatility. CoinGlass data reveals a sharp decline in spot market buys, dropping from $658.76 million on July 7 to $97.13 million by the following week. This outflow reflects waning investor interest, despite Bitcoin holding above bullish thresholds on macro charts. Meanwhile, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric on CryptoQuant surged to 0.57, indicating a growing share of unrealized profits—a precursor to potential selling activity [4]. Analysts caution that a sell-off could exert additional downward pressure, pushing Bitcoin toward short-term lows.

Price projections vary among market participants. CoinDCX posits that a strong volume-driven breakout above $122,000 could propel Bitcoin to $124,000–$130,000 by early 2025, but warns of a potential dip below $115,000 triggering further consolidation [5]. TradingView analysts emphasize the need for volume confirmation to validate a bullish move beyond $122,000 [6]. On the bearish side, Binance Square user Soldier III forecasts a drop beneath $116,400 could extend losses to $105,000 [7].

Technical analysis remains divided. While some traders view $122,000 as a psychological barrier that, if cleared, might attract fresh buyers, others see the $118,000–$119,000 range as a high-probability reversal zone [8]. Deriv’s blog notes that Bitcoin’s surge to $122,000 coincided with short squeeze speculation, though it remains unclear whether this marks the start of a sustained rally [9]. FXEmpire’s Bitcoin Investor Price Model signals “healthy growth” toward $139,000 but underscores the risk of a correction if key levels are breached [10].

Market participants are urged to monitor volume dynamics and institutional activity. A breakout above $122,000 without sufficient volume might fail to sustain momentum, while a decisive close above this level could attract algorithmic buying. Conversely, a retest of $115,000 or $105,000 may reignite selling pressure, particularly amid macroeconomic uncertainties or regulatory shifts.

Source:

[1] [Bitcoin Eyes $122K – But BTC’s Price Could Drop to THIS Level First](https://ambcrypto.com/bitcoin-eyes-122k-but-btcs-price-could-drop-to-this-level-first/)

[2] [Alphractal Long-Term Power Law Chart](//e.thsi.cn/img/8f4ab79077bec628)

[3] [CoinGlass Liquidation Heatmap](//e.thsi.cn/img/b338443c64510617)

[4] [CryptoQuant NUPL Indicator](//e.thsi.cn/img/fc87a9c4beda6a28)

[5] [Crypto Bull Run 2025](https://coindcx.com/blog/crypto-deep-dives/crypto-bull-run-2025/)

[6] [Bitcoin Trade Ideas](https://in.tradingview.com/symbols/BITCOIN/ideas/)

[7] [Binance Square Profile](https://www.binance.com/en/square/profile/red-nose-2024)

[8] [Facebook Post 1](https://www.facebook.com/groups/492496885232267/posts/150****874371558/)

[9] [Blog Search](https://deriv.com/blog-search)

[10] [Bitcoin Price Forecasts](https://www.fxempire.com/crypto/bitcoin/news)