Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's $120K Support Holds as Bulls and Bears Clash Over Market Outlook

Bitcoin's price has retreated below $120,000, sparking bearish speculation as on-chain metrics and market analysis suggest a potential 10% correction. Despite the pullback, analysts remain divided on whether the current consolidation represents a cyclical peak or a transitional phase in the ongoing bull market. Key technical indicators and institutional activity are closely scrutinized to determine the next directional move.

Recent data from Bitcoin Vector highlights that while momentum has slowed, the cryptocurrency's structural fundamentals remain robust. The firm emphasized that the current price action reflects a "coiled setup" with support intact below $120,000, dismissing claims of a market top. On-chain metrics, including the Bitcoin Fundamental Index (BFI), continue to show rising network growth and liquidity, reinforcing the argument that the bull cycle is far from over. Swissblock, a private wealth manager, echoed this sentiment, noting that Bitcoin's role as the crypto market's base layer remains unchallenged despite short-term caution among bulls.

However, bearish signals are emerging. CoinDesk reported that Bitcoin fell below $110,000 in late September, with Bitfinex analysts identifying a potential support floor between $93,000 and $95,000. Historical patterns suggest September is a weak period for Bitcoin, and the current correction aligns with typical bull-market retracements averaging 17% peak-to-trough. Additionally, the short-term holder (STH) realized price-a measure of newer investors' cost basis-currently sits near $108,900, raising concerns that a breakdown below this level could trigger a deeper selloff.

Contrasting views are reflected in AI-driven forecasts. CryptoQuant's NBeats Ensemble model predicts Bitcoin will remain range-bound between $108,000 and $123,000 in October, with activity clustering in the upper half of the range. The model attributes this to sustained buying interest amid a market pause after recent record highs. Meanwhile, crypto.news outlined a cautious bullish outlook, targeting $118,000–$122,000 as the next resistance zone, supported by ETF inflows and stablecoin liquidity. Conversely, Cointelegraph noted bearish divergences in volume and momentum on higher timeframes, with trader Roman suggesting a potential return to $108,000 as key support levels face renewed pressure.

Technical analysis further complicates the outlook. The Bitcoin Bull Market Peak Dashboard from CoinGlass shows no active top signals among 30 indicators, including Pi Cycle Top and MVRV ratios, suggesting ample upside potential. However, elevated leverage and macroeconomic uncertainties-such as inflation and interest rate risks-remain critical risks. BTCC's recent report highlighted a 22% increase in BTC futures open interest, with institutions hedging against downside risks via the $110,000 put wall.

Market participants are also monitoring institutional adoption. MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings have grown to 640,031 BTC, with the company achieving a 91% annualized return since adopting the asset as a reserve. While its stock performance is not directly tied to Bitcoin's price, the firm's aggressive accumulation underscores institutional confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value.

In summary, Bitcoin's current price action reflects a tug-of-war between bullish fundamentals and bearish technical pressures. Analysts caution that while the market structure remains intact, volatility is likely to persist as key support and resistance levels are tested. Traders are advised to monitor on-chain metrics, institutional flows, and macroeconomic developments for clarity on the next phase of the bull or bear trend.

Source: [1] Cointelegraph (https://cointelegraph.com/news/this-isnt-a-top-why-bitcoin-analysts-btc-will-break-123k)

[2] Coindesk (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/04/bitcoin-slips-below-usd110k-as-analysts-weigh-risk-of-deeper-pullback)

[3] crypto.news (https://crypto.news/bitcoin-price-prediction-is-a-10k-move-next/)

[4] Cointelegraph (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-drops-under-120k-bearish-data-sparks-10-btc-price-warning)

[6] CryptoPotato (https://cryptopotato.com/no-gains-for-btc-in-october-this-ai-predicts-rangebound-price-action-between-108k-and-123k/)

[8] BTCC (https://www.btcc.com/en-US/square/C0inX/1040241)