Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's $120K Crossroads: Technical Hope vs. Geopolitical Fears

Bitcoin's price dynamics in October 2025 have sparked intense debate among traders and analysts, with conflicting signals about the continuation of the bull market. After surging past $124,000 in early October, Bitcoin (BTC) faced a consolidation phase, with mixed technical and macroeconomic factors influencing its trajectory. An AI-driven model from CryptoQuant suggested a low probability of a breakout above $123,000 in October, forecasting range-bound movement within $108,000–$123,000 Cointelegraph^[1]. Meanwhile, traders closely monitored key support levels, including the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) at $119,250, as a potential floor for a retracement Cointelegraph^[1].

The $150,000 price target remains a focal point for bullish sentiment, with some analysts arguing that a correction to $121,500 could set the stage for a resumption of the upward trend Cointelegraph^[1]. However, the market's volatility was exacerbated by external factors, notably U.S.-China trade tensions. President Donald Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese imports triggered a $19 billion liquidation event in crypto markets, pushing Bitcoin below $110,000 in a single day Coindesk^[4]. This marked the largest liquidation in crypto history, according to CoinGlass, and underscored the asset's sensitivity to geopolitical risks .

The U.S. government shutdown further complicated the macroeconomic landscape, delaying critical data and creating uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy. While Fed officials hinted at potential rate cuts in October and December, the absence of real-time labor market data left markets in a "neutral" stance, according to The Kobeissi Letter Cointelegraph^[1]. Meanwhile, gold's surge to $4,000 per ounce intensified competition with Bitcoin as a "debasement hedge," with JPMorgan estimating that BTC could rise to $165,000 on a volatility-adjusted basis relative to gold .

Technical indicators provided conflicting signals. A bullish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggested weakening selling pressure, with Bitcoin stabilizing near $111,000 after a 19% correction Coindesk^[4]. However, the failure to hold above $120,000 raised concerns about the sustainability of the bull run. "Bitcoin needs to prove this $124k resistance is a weakening point of rejection," noted Rekt Capital, emphasizing the importance of a shallow pullback to $118,000 for maintaining bullish momentum Cointelegraph^[1].

The broader market reaction to Trump's tariff threats highlighted crypto's interconnectedness with traditional assets. The S&P 500 dropped 1.6% amid the crisis, while gold outperformed as a "risk-off" asset Markets FinancialContent^[7]. This dynamic reinforced the narrative of Bitcoin as a macro hedge, with VanEck's Matthew Sigel projecting a $644,000 BTC price if it captured half of gold's market size Coindesk^[2]. However, the immediate-term outlook remained cautious, with analysts warning of potential further selloffs if trade tensions escalated.

Despite the volatility, Bitcoin's resilience was evident. After the October 10 crash, BTC rebounded to $111,000, supported by growing holder counts and long-term wallet inactivity, which signaled a lack of panic selling Coindesk^[4]. On-chain metrics like the Spent Coins Age Bands (SCAB) confirmed that veteran holders remained passive, suggesting a structural reset rather than a bear market Coindesk^[4].

The "debasement trade" continued to drive capital into both gold and Bitcoin, with JPMorgan noting that retail investors were the primary drivers of inflows into spot BTC and gold ETFs . This trend was bolstered by a weakening U.S. dollar, which had depreciated 9% year-to-date, and growing fiscal concerns over U.S. debt exceeding $37 trillion .

In summary, Bitcoin's October 2025 price action reflected a tug-of-war between technical resilience and macroeconomic headwinds. While the $120,000 level remained a critical psychological barrier, the broader market's response to geopolitical risks and monetary policy underscored the evolving role of crypto as a hedge against systemic instability. Traders and institutions will need to monitor key resistance levels, Fed policy shifts, and trade negotiations to gauge the bull market's longevity.