Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Near $120K Breakout as Large Holders Accumulate 68% Supply

Large Bitcoin holders are aggressively accumulating the asset, signaling a potential breakout above the $120,000 level. Over the past several weeks, wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have received an additional 218,570 BTC, increasing their control to over 68% of the total circulating supply. This accumulation typically occurs during technical consolidation and has historically preceded major price rallies [1].

On-chain metrics reinforce this bullish setup. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has aligned with its 365-day moving average, a key indicator of market balance. A neutral MVRV position suggests the likelihood of a price expansion is increasing, especially with large wallet activity showing continued buying pressure [1]. Meanwhile, the MVRV ratio currently sits in a neutral zone, indicating that the market is neither overbought nor oversold, a condition often seen before a significant directional move [1].

Technical indicators also support the possibility of a breakout. Bitcoin is currently trading near the middle of the Bollinger Bands around $118,300, with the upper band at $119,900 acting as a near-term resistance. A successful break above this level could energize the market and open the door to further gains [1]. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 59.13, reflecting moderate upward momentum, while the MACD remains positive despite a bearish crossover, reinforcing the idea that consolidation is still in play [1].

If Bitcoin closes above $120,000, analysts anticipate a swift move into the $125,000–$130,000 range in the short term. Institutional accumulation and a strong technical framework are key factors supporting this potential breakout [1]. The continued buying from large wallets, coupled with a balanced leverage environment indicated by the near-zero Funding Rate, suggests that institutional investors are cautiously building positions [1].

However, not all signs are purely bullish. Open Interest has remained stable between $13 billion and $14 billion, a sign that larger players are positioning without aggressive expansion. The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio is at 0.9, reflecting increased selling pressure, though prices have held steady, indicating the presence of passive buyers absorbing downward momentum [1]. Analyst BorisVest from CryptoQuant suggests a temporary dip to $110,000 may be necessary to clear weak long positions and attract short interest before a stronger rally [1].

Looking ahead, a break above $122,000 could trigger a surge toward $140,000, according to an analysis by Crypto Rover [2]. Brave New Coin has also speculated that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2025 if PayPal expands its global BTC payment support [3]. Conversely, some analysts warn of a potential pullback to $112,000 before a stronger move higher [4]. The uncertainty reflects a market in transition, with short-term holders only 13% in profit, indicating a cautious sentiment amid potential volatility [5].

The broader macroeconomic landscape is also playing a role. With the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision and the White House’s expected cryptocurrency policy on the horizon, Bitcoin’s volatility is likely to increase in the near term [1]. Additionally, Ray Dalio has advised investors to allocate at least 15% of their portfolios to Bitcoin or gold as a hedge against government debt risks, further reinforcing its growing recognition as a macroeconomic asset [6].

With key technical levels in play and volume surging, the market stands on the brink of a significant move. Whether Bitcoin breaks out of its consolidation phase or faces a temporary pullback, the coming weeks will be crucial in shaping the next chapter for the cryptocurrency.

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[1] Bitcoin’s Calm Before the Storm? Binance Data Points to Big Shift Ahead (https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoins-calm-before-the-storm-binance-data-points-to-big-shift-ahead/)

[2] Bitcoin Price Prediction: Break Above $122,000 Could Trigger Surge to $140,000 (https://blockchain.news/flashnews/bitcoin-price-prediction-break-above-122-000-could-trigger-surge-to-140-000-btc-trading-analysis-2025)

[3] Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Bitcoin Could Surge to $250K by 2025 as PayPal Expands Global BTC Payment Support (https://bravenewcoin.com/insights/bitcoin-btc-price-prediction-bitcoin-could-surge-to-250k-by-2025-as-paypal-expands-global-btc-payment-support)

[4] Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Could Drop To $112K Before Soaring Past $130K (https://coincentral.com/bitcoin-price-prediction-btc-could-drop-to-112k-before-soaring-past-130k-these-2-altcoins-have-huge-room-to-run/)

[5] Bitcoin short-term holders only 13% in profit (https://www.cryptoquant.com)

[6] Ray Dalio advises holding 15% in Bitcoin or gold (https://www.bloomberg.com)