Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Near $120,000 Validates Pantera's 2022 Halving-Based Forecast

Pantera Capital’s 2022 forecast for Bitcoin has gained widespread attention after the asset closed above $119,000 on August 11, 2025 — nearly matching the firm’s predicted price of $117,482 [1]. The projection, made amid a bear market when Bitcoin was trading below $16,000, was based on the firm’s analysis of the four-year halving cycle and its historical impact on Bitcoin’s price [1]. Pantera’s model mapped previous halving rallies and accounted for diminishing returns after each cycle, reinforcing the idea that Bitcoin’s supply schedule remains a key factor in valuation [1].

The firm’s forecast was reiterated in May 2024 by Dan Morehead, co-founder of Pantera Capital, in his Blockchain Letter, where he reaffirmed the firm’s belief in the cyclical nature of Bitcoin [1]. This came at a time when many in the market questioned whether the traditional cycle would hold in a more mature, institutionalized market. With the introduction of US spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury holdings, some analysts argued the four-year cycle was becoming obsolete [1].

Nevertheless, Bitcoin’s 660% rally from its 2022 low to near $120,000 suggests that the cycle still holds predictive power [1]. Analyst Bob Loukas, for instance, correctly identified the start of a new four-year cycle in January 2023, just two months after Bitcoin hit its low [1]. His analysis aligns with Pantera’s in emphasizing the importance of supply mechanics in shaping Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

Meanwhile, other voices have pointed to a shift in the market. Jason Williams and Pierre Rochard have both argued that Bitcoin’s valuation is now driven more by demand-side factors such as institutional buying and retail accumulation than by supply-side events like halvings [1]. Rochard noted that 95% of Bitcoin is already mined, and supply now primarily comes from existing holders, with demand increasingly driven by spot markets and corporate treasuries [1].

Pantera’s successful price call has sparked renewed debate about the relevance of the four-year cycle in the current market. While institutional adoption and regulatory clarity are reshaping Bitcoin’s landscape, the firm’s forecast demonstrates that supply-driven frameworks can still offer valuable insight [1]. As the market continues to evolve, the question remains whether the halving cycle will remain a dominant force or give way to a new era of demand-led dynamics.