Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's $119k Push Tests Fed's Dovish Pivot Amid Shutdown Uncertainty

Bitcoin's price has surged to $115,300 as market participants brace for the U.S. Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decisions, with analysts forecasting a potential rally toward $119,000 amid a broader "Uptober" trend. The cryptocurrency's dominance in the crypto market has dipped to 57%, its lowest in eight months, as altcoins like Ethereum and Solana gain traction, driven by ETF inflows and rising total value locked (TVL) Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Eyes $119K as Fed Rate Cut Fuels Altcoin Rally^[1]. The Fed's September 17 rate cut-its first in 2025-lowered the federal funds target range to 4.00–4.25%, signaling a dovish pivot in response to a cooling labor market and persistent inflation . Futures markets now price in a 93% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in September, with additional reductions expected in October and December Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Eyes $119K as Fed Rate Cut Fuels Altcoin Rally^[1].

The U.S. government shutdown, which threatens to delay the release of critical economic data, has introduced uncertainty into the Fed's policy timeline. If the shutdown persists, the central bank may be forced to conduct its next policy meeting on October 28–29 without access to updated labor market or inflation metrics Bitcoin (BTC) Price News: Gains as October Nears - CoinDesk^[2]. This ambiguity has led to mixed market reactions, with Bitcoin briefly retreating below $114,000 last week before rebounding. Analysts note that October and November historically favor Bitcoin, with average gains of 22% and 46% since 2013, respectively Bitcoin (BTC) Price News: Gains as October Nears - CoinDesk^[2].

Technical analysis highlights Bitcoin's consolidation near $115,000, with key resistance levels at $116,784 and $117,769. A break above $119,500 would validate a bullish trend, while a drop below $114,414 could trigger a deeper correction Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Eyes $119K as Fed Rate Cut Fuels Altcoin Rally^[1]. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 49 suggests room for a short-term bounce, though early bearish divergence in indicators like the Awesome Oscillator (AO) warns of potential volatility Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement^[4]. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's estimated leverage ratio has hit annual highs, raising concerns about a correction due to overheated positions Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement^[4].

Institutional and retail flows remain supportive, with U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETFs recording $2.17 billion in inflows last week. Santiment data also shows a 10% increase in wallets holding at least 100 BTC over nine weeks, reflecting growing confidence in the asset Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement^[4]. However, traders remain cautious as the Fed's dual mandate-balancing inflation control with labor market support-remains unresolved. Core PCE inflation, a key Fed metric, is projected to stay above 2% through year-end 2025, complicating the path for aggressive easing .

The market's focus now shifts to October, a historically strong period for Bitcoin. Kruger of LMAX Group emphasized that "seasonality is about to turn sharply in Bitcoin's favor," with October's 22% average return since 2013 and November's 46% gains creating a favorable backdrop Bitcoin (BTC) Price News: Gains as October Nears - CoinDesk^[2]. However, risks persist. A delay in the Fed's policy timeline or a surprise in inflation data could disrupt the rally. Additionally, the looming government shutdown and its potential impact on economic data availability add another layer of uncertainty Bitcoin (BTC) Price News: Gains as October Nears - CoinDesk^[2].

Market participants are advised to monitor the Fed's October 31 meeting and the release of key economic indicators, including the October jobs report. For now, Bitcoin's price action suggests a cautious bullish stance, with institutional support near $110,000 and a potential test of $119,500 in the coming weeks Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Eyes $119K as Fed Rate Cut Fuels Altcoin Rally^[1].