Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's $116k Test: Will Fed's Move Spark Breakout or Backlash?

Bitcoin's recent V-shaped recovery has sparked debate over whether sustained bullish momentum can be maintained, with key resistance levels and macroeconomic factors shaping the outlook. The cryptocurrency currently faces a critical juncture as it trades near $116,000, a level analysts describe as a persistent barrier until renewed buying pressure emerges CoinTelegraph^[1]. Bitfinex noted that Bitcoin has remained at the upper edge of its trading range since hitting an all-time high of $124,100 in mid-August, with recent price action suggesting waning momentum as the asset dips below the cost basis for new investors who entered the $108,000–$116,000 range CoinTelegraph^[1].

The upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve decision on interest rates, expected to deliver a 25 basis point cut with a 96.1% probability, has become a pivotal catalyst. Analysts are divided: Fundstrat's Tom Lee anticipates a "monster move" in Bitcoin and Ethereum if the Fed cuts rates, while others, including Ted, predict a potential pullback to $104,000 or $92,000 before a rebound CoinTelegraph^[1]. The Fed's move is typically bullish for risk-on assets, but markets may already have priced in the cut, potentially limiting its immediate impact CoinTelegraph^[1].

Historical trends also play a role. The start of the fourth quarter-historically Bitcoin's best-performing period-has drawn attention, with CoinGlass data showing an average return of 85.42% since 2013 CoinTelegraph^[1]. Bitfinex analysts emphasized that long-term holder confidence remains strong, as recent sell-offs were driven by investors who bought during the February–May correction, suggesting limited headwinds for further gains CoinTelegraph^[1]. However, short-term volatility persists, with Kitco noting a possible weekend pullback following Bitcoin's surge above $116,000 Kitco^[2].

Institutional demand and ETF inflows are another key factor. Bitcoin ETFs have seen $1.7 billion in inflows this week, despite the asset's inability to reclaim its August highs FXLeaders^[3]. The broader market environment, marked by rising inflation and unemployment, has dampened Bitcoin's performance, but structural demand from institutional investors remains robust Forbes^[5]. For example, MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor predicts Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by late 2025, citing declining trust in fiat currencies and growing institutional adoption Forbes^[5].

Technical indicators offer mixed signals. While Bitcoin's 4-hour chart shows bullish momentum with two TBO Breakouts, a third could push prices higher Kitco^[2]. Conversely, the RSI on daily charts is nearing overbought territory, and bearish divergences have emerged, raising concerns about a correction . The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, at 53, reflects a neutral sentiment, balancing optimism with caution CoinTelegraph^[1].

Regulatory and macroeconomic risks remain. The Trump administration's proposed "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" could ease U.S. crypto oversight, while geopolitical tensions, such as U.S.-China tariff threats, pose a bearish risk CCN^[8]. Additionally, JPMorgan warned that over-ownership in ETFs could exacerbate volatility, capping prices without fresh catalysts Coindesk^[6].

Looking ahead, analysts project a range of outcomes. Standard Chartered targets $250,000 by 2025, while Coindesk's Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator suggests a move above $116,000 could open a valuation band of $160,000–$200,000 CoinMarketCap^[7]. However, achieving these targets depends on sustaining institutional inflows, avoiding regulatory setbacks, and navigating macroeconomic uncertainties.