Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Below $115K as Whale Bets 73.9% Rally to $200K by 2025

Bitcoin’s recent decline below the $115,000 threshold has sparked significant liquidations, with over $130 million in long positions unwound across exchanges [1]. However, on-chain data and expert analysis suggest that the cryptocurrency’s bullish momentum remains intact, supported by strategic whale activity and robust market fundamentals. A notable $23.7 million bullish bet placed by a large investor, targeting a $200,000 price level by the end of 2025, underscores continued confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential despite near-term volatility [1].

The whale’s position, executed via a bull call spread, involves purchasing low implied volatility (IV) calls at $140,000 while funding the trade with higher IV calls at $200,000. This approach reflects a calculated risk management strategy, balancing potential gains against downside exposure [1]. Analysts note that such large-scale bets often precede significant market movements, reinforcing the narrative of a resilient uptrend. The $115,000 level, meanwhile, has emerged as a critical support zone. A sustained break below this price could trigger a retest of $113,500, amplifying short-term selling pressure. Conversely, a successful defense of $115,000 would likely attract renewed buying interest, as historical patterns indicate buyers have historically intervened near $110,530 to stabilize the price [1].

Market dynamics further highlight Bitcoin’s structural strength. Liquidity replenishment in lower order books suggests buyers are positioned to absorb downward momentum, with analysts describing the recent correction as a “rotation-led adjustment” rather than a capitulation [1]. The reactivation of a dormant Satoshi-era whale, holding $9.6 billion in BTC, has introduced short-term volatility but has not disrupted the broader bullish framework. Large-scale on-chain movements typically lead to temporary price fluctuations rather than sustained downtrends, according to industry observers [1].

Technical indicators align with the optimistic outlook. The Bitcoin risk index, which measures the probability of significant drawdowns, currently reads zero, signaling no signs of overheating and a favorable risk environment for investors [1]. Swissblock, a prominent asset management firm, has characterized the correction as a buying opportunity, emphasizing that corrections at low risk levels often precede renewed upward momentum. This perspective is reinforced by the stable demand environment and strong fundamentals underpinning Bitcoin’s adoption.

While the $200,000 target by year-end is a speculative forecast, it is framed by macroeconomic catalysts such as the upcoming 2024 halving event and broader adoption trends [2]. Whale bets, historically linked to turning points in Bitcoin’s cycles, suggest that large players are positioning for a sustained rally. However, analysts caution that the outcome remains contingent on macroeconomic stability, including interest rate normalization and inflation control, which could influence market sentiment by 2025 [2]. Regulatory developments and geopolitical risks further underscore the need for caution, as markets remain sensitive to external shocks.

Investors are advised to closely monitor key technical levels while leveraging on-chain analytics to navigate price fluctuations. Strategic positioning, informed by whale activity and risk metrics, could enable capitalizing on Bitcoin’s evolving dynamics. The interplay between short-term corrections and long-term growth potential creates a nuanced environment where disciplined risk management is critical. As Bitcoin approaches critical support and resistance zones in the coming months, maintaining a balanced approach to liquidity and position sizing will be essential for navigating market rotations.

The $115,000 support level remains a pivotal determinant for the continuation of the uptrend, offering a strategic vantage point for both buyers and sellers. A daily candlestick close below this threshold may trigger increased volatility, but historical patterns suggest buyers are likely to step in near $110,530, mitigating further downside risk [1].

Source:

[1] [Bitcoin Below $115K as Whale Bets 73.9% Rally to $200K by ...] https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-115k-whale-bets-73-9-rally-200k-year-2507/

[2] [Bitcoin May Face Key $115,000 Support as Whale Bets on Potential $200,000 Year-End Target July 25, 2025] https://m.economictimes.com/crypto-news-today-live-23-jul-2025/liveblog/122843865.cms