Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's $114K Crossroads: Short Squeeze or Correction?

Bitcoin's price trajectory near the $114,000 level has intensified scrutiny as on-chain data and market dynamics highlight a potential short squeeze scenario. Analysts from COINOTAG and Alphractal note that Bitcoin's recent rally is underpinned by sustained capital inflows and strong realized capitalization impulses, which indicate ongoing accumulation rather than distribution. However, the concentration of short positions around $112,600–$114,000 has created a high-risk environment where a sharp price rise could trigger forced liquidations, accelerating upward momentum temporarily. This setup aligns with historical patterns where resistance zones have historically signaled cyclical downturns, though the current on-chain metrics suggest a near-term bullish bias.

The risk of a significant correction looms if Bitcoin fails to break through the $113,000–$116,500 resistance cluster. Coinglass data reveals that $45 million in liquidations have already occurred, with $34 million attributed to long positions. Should the price dip below $114,000, long liquidations could surge to $657 million, exacerbating downward pressure. Conversely, a breakout above $116,000 might trigger $210 million in short liquidations, creating a volatile battleground for traders. The Kingfisher's analysis of the liquidation map underscores the criticality of the $112,600 level, where a short squeeze could propel Bitcoin above its current range.

Whale activity and ETF flows further complicate the outlook. Holders of 1,000–10,000 BTC have sold over $13 billion in the past 30 days, marking the largest selling wave since July 2022. This heavy supply pressure, combined with a cooling of Bitcoin ETF inflows-now averaging 500 BTC per day-weakens the market's ability to absorb large-scale selling. Meanwhile, retail traders remain exposed, with many long positions initiated between $117,000 and $122,000 currently at a loss, amplifying the risk of panic selling if the price tests lower support levels.

Technically, Bitcoin faces a pivotal test at $113,000, having failed to break through the level three times in the past week. Analysts like Michaël van de Poppe emphasize the importance of this resistance in determining the asset's direction. A successful breakout could target $122,200 and $124,500, while a breakdown below $114,400 might trigger a drop toward $112,000 or $108,250. The inverse head-and-shoulders pattern observed by Merlijn The Trader adds a long-term bullish bias, with potential targets at $130,000–$150,000 if the neckline at $71,000 holds.

Long-term forecasts suggest Bitcoin may approach a structural turning point by late 2025. COINOTAG analysts project a cyclical bearish phase could begin around October 2025, potentially extending into late 2026. This transition is attributed to the long-term realized cap impulse metric nearing historical resistance levels that have historically preceded extended corrections. Investors are urged to adopt cautious strategies, given the interplay of leveraged positions and whale-driven volatility.

Source: [1] Bitcoin May See Short Squeeze Near $114K Before Possible Long Term Correction After 2025 (https://en.coinotag.com/bitcoin-may-see-short-squeeze-near-114k-before-possible-long-term-correction-after-2025/) [2] Bitcoin Price Update: Bitcoin Faces $657M Long Liquidation Risk If $114K Breaks (https://coinpedia.org/news/bitcoin-price-update-bitcoin-faces-657m-long-liquidation-risk-if-114k-breaks/) [3] Bitcoin Approaches $114K as Liquidation Map Warns of Major Short Squeeze (https://cryptopotato.com/bitcoin-approaches-114k-as-liquidation-map-warns-of-major-short-squeeze/)