Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's $112k Showdown: Traders Braced for Breakout or $100k Slide

Bitcoin (BTC) remains in a tight consolidation phase near $111,500, with traders and analysts closely monitoring whether the asset can break out of its recent $2,025 range. According to CoinDesk Research, trading volume surged on Oct. 24 as sellers capped rallies near the upper bound of the corridor, while buyers defended support around $109,800. A clean break above $112,000 could target $115,000, but a loss of the $109,800 level would likely trigger a retest of $108,000, the CoinDesk piece added.

Meanwhile, broader market dynamics suggest a precarious outlook. Analysts warn that Bitcoin could slip below $100,000 by month-end, driven by renewed U.S.-China trade tensions and a market showing signs of fatigue. The cryptocurrency's bearish divergence on technical indicators—where price highs weaken with each rally—has raised concerns about a deeper correction, according to a CryptoNews article. "This October flare-up in U.S.-China trade tensions likely accelerated a necessary cooldown," said CEX.io analyst Otychenko, noting that momentum indicators still point to further downside.

Bitcoin's recent all-time high of $126,199, set on Oct. 6, has not provided lasting momentum. As reported in a Coinotag article, Bitfinex analysts highlight that the $112,000 resistance level is critical for the 2025 rally, with failure to break through likely extending consolidation between $100,000 and $125,000. Altcoins like Ethereum (ETH) and XRP remain in sideways patterns, with ETH stabilizing near its 20-day EMA at $4,023 and XRP trading close to its 20-day EMA of $2.45, the Coinotag piece noted.

Macro factors are compounding uncertainty. Trump's expansion of tariffs on Chinese goods and a prolonged government shutdown have exacerbated risk aversion among crypto investors. On-chain data reveals a surge in short positions on Binance perpetual futures, with liquidation clusters forming below $106,300, according to a Cointelegraph analysis. However, the same report notes that spot ETF inflows and the Coinbase Premium Index have shown resilience, indicating retail and institutional demand at key support levels.

The political landscape also adds complexity. According to a Yahoo Finance report, President Trump's recent pardon of Binance founder Changpeng Zhao has injected short-term optimism, with Bitcoin rising 3.5% and altcoins like XRP and BNB gaining 8.5% and 4%, respectively. Yet, analysts caution that broader geopolitical and macroeconomic factors—including inflation and interest rates—will ultimately shape the market's trajectory through 2026.

For now, traders are advised to monitor critical levels. If Bitcoin holds above $107,000, it could consolidate before another attempt at $112,000. A breakdown below that threshold, however, may invite a test of the $100,000 psychological barrier, Coinotag analysts warned. Altcoin watchers are similarly eyeing ETH's 20-day EMA and XRP's 20-day EMA for signs of a breakout.