Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's $105K Battle: A Test of Investor Belief in the Bull Cycle

Bitcoin's recent price action reflects historical volatility patterns that have become a hallmark of the cryptocurrency. Over the past weeks, Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a notable pullback, dipping below $110,000 after an initial rebound fueled by positive signals from the Jackson Hole economic symposium. This correction comes amid broader market uncertainty, including macroeconomic concerns and geopolitical developments like the recent appointment and removal of Federal Reserve officials, which have added to the unease among investors [6].

Data from on-chain analytics reveals that Bitcoin holders, especially those holding mid-sized portfolios (10–100 BTC), have increased their distribution activity, further pressuring the price [6]. Smaller wallets (0–1 BTC) have shown a shift toward accumulation, while larger holders (1,000–10,000 BTC) have continued selling, albeit at a slower pace compared to earlier highs. This behavior indicates a degree of indecision among investors, particularly around the $105,000 level, which has emerged as a critical support zone [5].

Historically, Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience in recovering from significant drawdowns. According to data from @MilkRoadDaily, Bitcoin has experienced over 1,000 instances of declines of at least -8%, with an average recovery period of 109 days [3]. This pattern contrasts with the typically slower recovery times of traditional asset classes like the S&P 500, which often take years to rebound from similar levels. For traders, this highlights the importance of timing and patience when navigating Bitcoin’s volatile cycles.

Ethereum (ETH) has also faced volatility during this period, with a notable drop below $4,900 after reaching an all-time high. The market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio for ETH stands at 2.08, significantly lower than cycle highs in 2017 and 2021, indicating that the asset still has unrealized value [4]. Analysts have noted that Ethereum is currently in the "belief phase" of its bull cycle, suggesting that strong fundamentals and institutional interest could drive the price even higher. Technical indicators, such as the formation of a rounded bottom on the daily chart, point to a potential target of $12,130, representing a 161% rise from current levels [4].

As Bitcoin approaches the $105,000 threshold, traders and analysts remain closely monitoring key metrics that could signal the next phase of the market. These include on-chain accumulation patterns, open interest in futures contracts, and the behavior of major wallet holders. The current pullback also aligns with Bitcoin's historical seasonal tendencies, with the August to September period often marked by weaker performance. Additionally, concerns about the sustainability of the recent bullish momentum have been exacerbated by the exhaustion of post-ETF enthusiasm and the waning influence of the U.S. dollar’s depreciation [6].

Despite the short-term volatility, the broader market outlook for Bitcoin remains mixed but data-driven. Institutional investors, who have historically acted as stabilizing forces during downturns, are now tracking whale activity and hash rate stability as key indicators of long-term viability. Meanwhile, retail investors and swing traders are using historical support levels and Fibonacci retracements to identify potential entry points for accumulation, leveraging Bitcoin’s known resilience in post-corrective environments [3].

Source: [1] Bitcoin Forecast: Possible Decline to $70K Due to Altcoin ... (https://intellectia.ai/news/crypto/bitcoin-projections-potential-drop-to-70k-amid-altcoin-risks) [2] Daily Crypto Signals: Bitcoin Dips Under $110K, Analysts ... (https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2025/08/26/daily-crypto-signals-bitcoin-dips-under-110k-analysts-target-20k-for-ethereum/) [3] BTC Recovers in 109 Days After -8% Drops vs SPX Years ... (https://blockchain.news/flashnews/btc-recovers-in-109-days-after-8-drops-vs-spx-years-eth-died-146-times-milkroaddaily-data) [4] Bitcoin Correction Risks Deepen With $105000 As Critical ... (https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1067869-20250826) [5] Bitcoin holders 'distribute' as $105K becomes BTC's last ... (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-holders-distribute-as-dollar105k-becomes-btc-s-last-stronghold) [6] Bitcoin slides below $110000 as capital rotation shifts to ... (https://www.theblock.co/post/368189/bitcoin-sinks-below-110000)