Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin’s $100K Threshold Tests Investor Faith in the Bull Market

Bitcoin’s price has recently fallen below key psychological thresholds, raising concerns among investors about the sustainability of the current bull market. The cryptocurrency hit a record high of $124,000 earlier this month but has since retreated, breaking below the $110,000 level. Technical indicators, including the relative strength index (RSI), suggest that bearish momentum is currently dominant. On the daily chart, Bitcoin has been declining within a descending channel, signaling potential further downward movement. The $104,000 level has emerged as a critical support zone, coinciding with the lower bound of a Fibonacci retracement zone. If this level fails, the price could drop below $100,000, which has not occurred since June 2025 [1].

On-chain data further reinforces the bearish sentiment. Exchange netflow, a measure of the movement of Bitcoin between exchanges and cold storage, has been negative over the past 30 days. This suggests that more coins are being moved off exchanges, indicating investor preference for holding rather than selling. While occasional large inflows have occurred, they have not been sufficient to offset the broader outflows. This trend is often interpreted as a sign of accumulation by long-term holders, which could provide support in the coming months if it outweighs selling pressure from the futures market [1].

Prediction markets reflect a growing concern that Bitcoin could break below $100,000 in the near future. On Polymarket, traders have assigned a 61% probability to this scenario, down from 72% earlier in the week. Analysts attribute this shift to increased selling activity by large holders and whales, although institutional demand has partially offset this pressure. For instance, corporate treasuries and institutional allocators have absorbed a significant portion of the supply, with companies such as Metaplanet planning to deploy $837 million into Bitcoin acquisitions through October. These developments suggest a complex interplay between accumulation and distribution forces in the market [2].

The broader market environment also plays a role in Bitcoin’s price dynamics. Analysts have identified September as historically weak for Bitcoin, with the cryptocurrency often posting negative returns during this month. Additionally, broader risk assets such as the S&P 500 have experienced pullbacks, contributing to a more cautious sentiment. John Pompiano, a financial analyst, described the recent correction as a “healthy reset,” clearing out excess leverage and creating a base for a future rally. He forecasts that Bitcoin could still reach $150,000 in the current cycle, assuming institutional buying continues to support the asset [3].

Market leverage remains a key concern. Open interest in perpetual futures contracts has reached a two-year high of over 310,000 Bitcoin, while funding rates have surged from 3% to nearly 11%. These conditions indicate aggressive long positioning, which could lead to a cascade of liquidations if the market turns sharply downward. Analysts warn that similar leverage conditions contributed to sharp corrections in 2023 and 2024. Meanwhile, the growing influence of macroeconomic factors, including the Federal Reserve’s policy direction, adds another layer of uncertainty. Some analysts expect rate cuts to begin as early as September, which could impact risk appetite and, consequently, Bitcoin’s price trajectory [2].

Despite the near-term volatility, long-term investors remain relatively optimistic. Corporate accumulation of Bitcoin continues to rise, with treasury holdings now totaling approximately 632,000 Bitcoin. This trend could act as a buffer against larger sell-offs by whales or market corrections. However, the market must also contend with the broader economic outlook, which some analysts describe as a potential “Weimar Lite” period—a reference to a decade of currency weakness, rising inequality, and asset price inflation. In this context, Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a hedge against monetary debasement due to its fixed supply and decentralized nature [3].

Source:

[1] Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Risks Dumping Below $100K If ... (https://cryptopotato.com/bitcoin-price-analysis-btc-risks-dumping-below-100k-if-this-final-support-cracks/)

[2] Bitcoin Likely To Drop Below $100K This Year (https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/bitcoin-likely-to-drop-below-dollar100k-this-year)

[3] Bitcoin Correction, Fed Policy, and “Weimar Lite”: Analyst ... (https://www.financemagnates.com/trending/bitcoin-correction-fed-policy-and-weimar-lite-analyst-warns-of-volatile-decade/)