Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's $100K Test: Macro Risks vs. Technical Bounce Hopes in Pivotal October

Bitcoin Eyes CME Gap Fill as Price Dips 2.5%, Raising $100K Collapse Fears

Bitcoin's price has completed a critical technical milestone, filling a weekly CME futures gap between $109,680 and $111,310-a pattern last observed before a major 2024 rally. The move has reignited debates among traders about whether this signals a potential reversal akin to late 2024, when BTC surged from $68,785 to $108,000 after a similar gap fill. Analysts at RektCapital note a bullish divergence forming on daily charts, suggesting a possible rebound toward $130,000 before year-end [1].

Market sentiment, however, remains fragile. Crypto traders are reporting exhaustion and doubt, with major chat rooms reflecting a "ghost town" atmosphere after a recent 2.66% weekly decline. The Binance funding rate turned negative this week-a rare occurrence historically linked to market bottoms-while on-chain data shows large spot exchange outflows, indicating quiet accumulation amid fear [1]. Meanwhile, gold has outperformed BTC by a wide margin since March, with a 28.12% gain versus Bitcoin's 4.42% drop. Analysts argue that Bitcoin often takes the baton from gold when the latter's rally becomes overextended, a scenario that could unfold as gold's RSI hits 92, its highest since records began [1].

Macro factors complicate the outlook. CME data suggests a 96.7% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this month, a potential tailwind for risk-on assets like Bitcoin. However, U.S.-China trade tensions and a prolonged government shutdown risk could offset these gains. Farzam Ehsani of VALR highlights growing alignment between Bitcoin and gold as hedges against fiscal uncertainty but warns that renewed trade frictions could test BTC's resilience [1].

Technical indicators offer conflicting signals. Bitcoin's monthly Bollinger Bands have expanded to record levels, a pattern historically tied to higher prices. Yet the asset is currently trading near a critical $110,990–$111,355 CME gap, which some analysts argue could act as a temporary barrier before a recovery attempt. If BTC closes below $110,000, it could trigger a deeper correction toward $100,000, according to FXStreet's analysis [4].

Institutional demand is also a key variable. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $902.5 million in outflows last week, breaking a four-week inflow streak. Despite this, exchange reserves have plummeted to 2.3 million BTC-the lowest since July 2018-suggesting reduced selling pressure and a potential scarcity-driven bullish scenario [4]. Conversely, CoinDesk's Omkar Godbole warns that Bitcoin's repeated failures to hold above a key trendline drawn from 2017 and 2021 highs signal a bearish bias, with sub-$100K levels in play [7].

The path forward hinges on multiple catalysts. A resolution in U.S.-China trade talks or a Fed rate cut could reignite bullish momentum, while prolonged macroeconomic risks or regulatory headwinds could extend the downturn. For now, Bitcoin sits at a crossroads, with technical patterns, macro trends, and sentiment all pointing to a pivotal October for the world's largest cryptocurrency.