Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's $100K Test: A Make-or-Break September for Institutional Confidence

Bitcoin's recent price action has triggered a mix of caution and optimism among market participants, with strategic buyers stepping in as the asset declined to $108,000. Over the past week, approximately 4,048 BTC was purchased, highlighting a potential buying opportunity amid what appears to be a short-term correction. The dip, which has seen Bitcoin break below key technical support levels such as the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages, has raised concerns about further downside risks, with some analysts warning that the price could potentially test the $100,000 level.

Despite the recent weakness, Bitcoin remains within a defined descending channel on the 4-hour chart, with the $107,000 zone identified as a critical support level. If this level holds, a reversal could push the price back toward $116,000 over the coming days. This would align with a historical pattern observed in 2017, where a similar retest of support was followed by a sharp upward move toward $20,000. However, the broader sentiment is influenced by the so-called "September Effect," which historically has seen Bitcoin close in the red for eight out of the past twelve September months, averaging a return of approximately -3.80%.

The bearish momentum is also supported by technical indicators such as the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) and the MACD histogram, both of which have shifted toward a bearish bias. The short-term EMA band of the GMMA has crossed below the longer-term band, a clear signal of weakening momentum, while the weekly MACD histogram has dropped below zero, reinforcing the bearish trend. These signals suggest that a sustained sell-off may drive the price down to the 200-day SMA at $101,366 and potentially test the $100,000 psychological barrier.

The macroeconomic backdrop also plays a role, with weakening U.S. economic data and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts contributing to a softening dollar. The dollar’s decline, which has seen the 52-week correlation between Bitcoin and the US Dollar Index (DXY) drop to -0.25, may provide tailwinds for Bitcoin if the trend continues. Analysts suggest that a weaker dollar could enhance Bitcoin's appeal as an alternative asset, particularly if institutional demand remains strong.

Meanwhile, MicroStrategy, now operating under the name Strategy (MSTR), has emerged as a significant player in the Bitcoin narrative. In Q2 2025, the company reported $14 billion in operating income and $10 billion in net income, with its Bitcoin holdings reaching 597,325 coins as of June 30. Strategy has officially qualified for potential inclusion in the S&P 500, a move that could further solidify Bitcoin's position in mainstream financial markets. If approved during the September 2025 rebalance, it would mark a milestone for digital assets in U.S. equities.

As market participants await the outcome of the S&P 500 inclusion and monitor key support levels, the next few weeks will be critical in determining whether Bitcoin can stabilize and launch a new bullish phase. For now, the price action and technical indicators suggest a cautious stance, but strategic buyers continue to accumulate, betting on a potential rebound toward $124,500 within the next 4–6 weeks.

Source:

[1] Bitcoin Price Today: Sudden Crash to $109K, Is $116K ... (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-price-today-sudden-crash-145728986.html)

[2] Bitcoin (BTC) Price News: Risks Sliding to $100K as 'Red ... (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/01/red-september-bitcoin-risks-sliding-to-usd100k-after-8-monthly-drop)

[3] MSTR Qualifies for S&P 500, Inclusion Decision Awaits ... (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/01/strategy-qualifies-for-s-and-p-500-inclusion-decision-could-come-on-friday)