Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's $100k Support Tested: Retail Bulls vs. Whale Sellers

Bitcoin's price fell below $101,000 on November 4, 2025, amid a stark divergence between retail and institutional investor behavior, according to on-chain analytics firm Santiment. The cryptocurrency, which had peaked at $127,500 in late October, now trades at $100,915, down 5.30% from its recent high. Retail traders remain heavily long, with 71.96% of accounts positioned bullish, while whale selling pressure has intensified, signaling potential distribution over accumulation, according to a Coinotag report.

The long/short ratio by account numbers stands at 2.57, reflecting strong retail optimism. However, volume data reveals a contrasting bearish bias, with shorts accounting for 52% of trading volume and a volume ratio of 0.9234, according to the Coinotag report. This imbalance, where small retail buyers absorb large whale sales, has historically preceded significant volatility. Analysts warn that extreme positioning—72% of accounts long—increases the risk of cascading liquidations if support levels at $98,000 break.

Notably, crypto whale HyperUnit has bucked the trend, opening $55 million in long positions on Bitcoin and Ethereum via Hyperliquid, according to Live Bitcoin News. The whale, known for a $200 million profit during October's market crash, has a track record of timing major moves, including a 2018 Bitcoin accumulation that grew to $10 billion. Similarly, Tether added 961 BTC ($97 million) to its reserves during the recent dip, reinforcing institutional confidence despite retail pessimism, according to Blockonomi.

Santiment highlighted the divergence as a cautionary signal, noting that whale selling while retail buyers remain optimistic often precedes further declines, as noted in a Cointelegraph report. Meanwhile, on-chain metrics show 5.19 million units of selling pressure in Bitcoin's accumulation/distribution indicator, confirming active distribution rather than a simple correction, per the Coinotag report.

Market sentiment remains mixed. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index reads 21, deep in the "fear" zone, while ETF inflows resumed on November 6, adding $240 million to Bitcoin funds after six days of outflows, according to Sherwood News. JPMorgan analysts raised their 12-month BTC price target to $170,000, citing undervaluation relative to gold and improving institutional demand, as reported by the Economic Times. However, risks persist: long-term holders sold 405,000 BTC between October 2 and November 2, and Bitcoin's Realized Cap Dynamics suggest fading structural momentum, according to CoinMarketCap Academy.

Technical indicators paint a fragile outlook. Bitcoin's 20-day moving average and lower Bollinger Band breach confirm downside bias, with key resistance at $108,000 and support at $98,000, according to the Coinotag report. A break below $98,000 could trigger mass long liquidations, targeting $95,000 next. Conversely, a rebound above $108,000 might spark short covering and a retest of $115,000.

Analysts remain divided on the near-term trajectory. While some see stabilization forming, others caution that macroeconomic pressures—including a 7% weekly Bitcoin dip and unresolved geopolitical tensions—could reignite selling, per the Economic Times. Cathie Wood of ARK Invest lowered her 2030 Bitcoin target to $1.2 million, citing stablecoin adoption in emerging markets as a competing use case for digital assets, according to The Crypto Basic.

For now, the split between retail bulls and institutional bears underscores the need for caution in a highly leveraged market. As Santiment notes, the current divergence could either catalyze a short squeeze or deepen the correction, depending on how key levels hold, according to Cointelegraph.