Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's $100K Slide Tests JPMorgan's Gold-Backed $170K Thesis

Bitcoin's price fell below $100,000 on Nov. 4, 2025, marking its first drop below that level in three months amid a $1.3 billion in crypto liquidations and $445 million in Bitcoin-specific losses, according to a a Yahoo Finance report. The decline, part of a 20% correction from October's $124,500 peak, was exacerbated by large sell-offs from whale investors and a broader risk-off sentiment in global markets, the report added. Yet, even as the cryptocurrency faces near-term volatility, JPMorgan analysts are doubling down on their bullish thesis, arguing that Bitcoin is undervalued relative to gold and could surge to $170,000 within six to 12 months, as detailed in a Cointelegraph piece.

The bank's rationale hinges on a volatility-adjusted comparison between Bitcoin and gold. JPMorgan's strategists, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, noted that Bitcoin currently consumes 1.8 times more risk capital than gold, a metric that historically aligns the two assets, the Cointelegraph piece added. With $6.2 trillion in private-sector investment in gold versus Bitcoin's $2.1 trillion market cap, the gap implies a 67% increase in Bitcoin's value to reach parity—translating to a $170,000 price target, according to Coindesk's analysis. This model contrasts sharply with late 2024, when Bitcoin traded well above this benchmark.

JPMorgan's analysis also points to stabilizing conditions in the crypto derivatives market. Open interest in perpetual futures, a key indicator of leverage and speculative activity, has normalized after recent deleveraging events, including a record $1.3 billion in liquidations on Oct. 10 and a $120 million exploit in the decentralized finance sector, the bank noted in another Yahoo report. "The message from recent stabilization is that deleveraging in perpetual futures is likely behind us," the bank wrote, signaling a potential shift from correction to accumulation, Blockonomi noted.

The bank's confidence is further bolstered by Bitcoin's evolving role as a hedge against equity risk. As gold volatility rises, Bitcoin's risk-adjusted appeal is growing, particularly among institutional investors. JPMorgan noted that major banks like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock are increasingly allowing Bitcoin and Ethereum as loan collateral, reflecting growing institutional acceptance, Blockonomi added. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $187 million in outflows on Nov. 3, 2025, but the bank dismissed concerns about sustained redemptions, citing broader market liquidity trends from the earlier Yahoo coverage.

Not all analysts share JPMorgan's optimism. Galaxy Digital's Alex Thorn recently revised its 2025 Bitcoin target from $185,000 to $120,000, citing macroeconomic headwinds such as trade war fears and the Oct. 10 market crash, Cointelegraph reported. The firm also highlighted a 400,000 BTC sell-off by whale investors in October, which contributed to the recent selloff. However, JPMorgan remains focused on structural factors, including central bank gold purchases and the maturation of crypto as an asset class. "Bitcoin has entered a new phase, the 'maturity era,' where institutional absorption and passive flows dominate," Thorn acknowledged, the Cointelegraph coverage noted.

Market conditions remain mixed. The U.S. Supreme Court's upcoming review of Trump-era tariff policies has heightened uncertainty, while Wall Street banks warn of a potential 10% equity market correction, as earlier Yahoo coverage highlighted. Meanwhile, technical indicators for Bitcoin show bearish momentum, with the MACD histogram widening and the price testing support near $98,000, according to the same Yahoo reporting. Yet JPMorgan's model suggests these short-term pressures may not derail the long-term trajectory.

As the debate over Bitcoin's fair value intensifies, investors are weighing JPMorgan's gold-based framework against more cautious forecasts from peers. The coming months will test whether the market aligns with the bank's $170,000 thesis—or if macroeconomic turbulence will extend the current bearish correction.