Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's $100K Outlook Dips to 29% as Macro Uncertainty Weighs

Bitcoin's Path to $100,000 Grows Cloudy as Polymarket Predicts 29% Probability

Bitcoin's chances of reaching $100,000 by year-end have plummeted to 29% on prediction market Polymarket, according to recent data. The decline reflects growing uncertainty among traders as macroeconomic conditions and shifting market sentiment cloud the outlook. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency is trading near $92,500 as the Federal Reserve prepares to deliver its final monetary policy decision of 2025.

The drop in probability follows a period of consolidation and technical volatility. Bitcoin briefly reclaimed key moving averages after a two-month pullback, but the broader narrative of a return to the $100,000 level remains in question. Polymarket's shifting odds suggest market participants are factoring in the likelihood of continued headwinds.

The coming days will be critical. With the Fed widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the market is keenly watching whether the move will translate into meaningful liquidity support for risk assets like Bitcoin. However, the absence of November jobs data adds an element of uncertainty to the central bank's decision.

Market Conditions and Technical Outlook

Bitcoin has shown signs of stabilization after falling below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages earlier this year. The recent price action indicates a potential short-term rebound, with the 200-day moving average turning positive for the first time in a month. However, the asset remains below its 52-week high, which has become a key resistance level.

Technical analysts suggest that a breakout above $93,000 could reignite bullish momentum. But given the current volatility and lack of consensus on a clear price direction, many traders are taking a cautious approach. The tight trading range between $90,000 and $93,000 suggests that both buyers and sellers are holding off until key macroeconomic signals are clearer.

Fed Policy and Its Impact on Bitcoin

The Federal Reserve's upcoming decision is expected to shape Bitcoin's near-term trajectory. Polymarket currently prices a 96% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, a move that would lower the federal funds rate into the 3.50%–3.75% range. Lower interest rates typically ease financial conditions, which could benefit risk-sensitive assets.

However, the Fed faces a lack of recent labor and inflation data due to the government shutdown. This has led to speculation that the central bank could opt to delay action rather than make a decision without complete information. Analysts at Bank of America and Vanguard have noted that any liquidity expansion, including potential balance-sheet growth, could drive Bitcoin into a new bull phase in 2026.

Meanwhile, political developments continue to influence the market. President Trump has signaled a strong preference for aggressive rate cuts under his leadership, a stance that has already contributed to increased market volatility.

Risks to the Outlook

Despite the near-term technical rebound, several factors remain bearish for Bitcoin's chances of reaching $100,000. ETF inflows have weakened, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust logging six consecutive weeks of outflows. This signals a shift in investor behavior, with speculative trading giving way to more institutional and long-term positioning.

Additionally, corporate accumulation has slowed, with companies like MicroStrategy opting for larger but less frequent Bitcoin purchases. The broader digital-asset-treasury (DAT) model, which drove much of the asset's recent growth, is losing steam as equity premiums for crypto-focused firms like Twenty One Capital collapse.

On the regulatory front, the Trump administration's proposed national cryptocurrency reserve has seen a sharp drop in market confidence. Polymarket now assigns near-zero probability to the initiative becoming operational in 2025, a sign that the idea is more political than practical. Without meaningful institutional accumulation, the market remains exposed to volatility and external shocks.

What This Means for Investors

Investors are increasingly hedging their bets. Short-term traders are focusing on the $90,000–$93,000 range as the next battleground for price control. The outcome of the Fed's rate decision could determine whether Bitcoin continues its consolidation phase or attempts another breakout.

Long-term investors, on the other hand, remain cautious but optimistic. Standard Chartered has lowered its 2025 price target for Bitcoin to $100,000 from $200,000 but maintains a $500,000 forecast for 2030. This suggests that while macroeconomic conditions may delay the immediate rally, the fundamentals for Bitcoin's long-term growth remain intact.

However, with ETF inflows slowing and market sentiment mixed, investors should be prepared for a more volatile and unpredictable 2026. The path to $100,000 remains uncertain, and patience may be the key to navigating the next phase of the Bitcoin cycle.