Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin’s $100K Lifeline Could Decide the Bull Market’s Fate

Bitcoin’s price continues to face bearish pressure as market participants closely monitor the $100,000 support level, which has emerged as a key psychological threshold. Recent price action has seen the cryptocurrency fall 6.5% in August, marking the end of a four-month winning streak, and triggering concerns over the sustainability of the current bull market [2]. The breakdown below key technical indicators, including the Ichimoku cloud and the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages, has further signaled growing bearish momentum [2].

The RSI divergence remains a critical point of analysis, with both bullish and bearish signals emerging from different timeframes. While some traders and analysts have noted a potential bearish divergence on the daily charts, there are also early signs of bullish divergence on the four-hour charts, suggesting the possibility of a near-term rebound [1]. Traders such as Roman and ZYN have highlighted that if the $100,000 level holds, there could be a new all-time high within the next 4–6 weeks [1]. However, if this support is breached, the bull market may be officially over, according to trader forecasts [1].

Seasonality and macroeconomic factors are also playing a role in shaping market sentiment. September has historically been a bearish month for Bitcoin, with the cryptocurrency experiencing an average return of -3.49% since 2013 [2]. This bearish pattern, combined with the broader macroeconomic environment, has led to increased caution among investors. The recent remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole, hinting at possible policy adjustments, have had a measurable impact on crypto markets, driving Bitcoin above $117,000 and Ethereum close to $4,900 [3]. Such macroeconomic signals are now as influential as on-chain developments in determining price movements [3].

The current dynamics between liquidity and fundamentals are also becoming more apparent. While all-time highs attract retail capital and generate excitement, they also coincide with rising exchange supply and inflated profit ratios, making the market more susceptible to sharp corrections [3]. This is evident in the contrasting fortunes of projects like Chainlink, which has seen a significant rally due to increased network usage and whale accumulation, versus speculative tokens such as Yeezy Coin, which collapsed despite reaching a high valuation [3]. The lesson for crypto ecosystems is that liquidity can spark rallies, but only strong fundamentals can sustain long-term growth [3].

Looking forward, Bitcoin bulls will need to reclaim the $113,510 level—set on August 28—to negate the bearish outlook and reestablish a more bullish trajectory [2]. Meanwhile, bears are eyeing key support levels such as $105,240 (the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April-August rally) and the 200-day SMA at $101,366 [2]. The battle for these levels will likely determine whether the current correction turns into a deeper bearish trend or serves as a temporary consolidation before a new bull phase.

Overall, the market remains in a state of flux, with conflicting signals from technical indicators and macroeconomic factors. Investors are advised to maintain a cautious stance and monitor key price levels and momentum shifts to make informed decisions.

Source:

[1] Bitcoin bull market will be 'over' if $100K BTC price is lost (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-bull-market-over-if-100k-is-lost-trader)

[2] Red September? Bitcoin Risks Sliding to $100K After 6 ... (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/red-september-bitcoin-risks-sliding-032445783.html)

[3] Fixed Income News | Fidelity Investments (https://fixedincome.fidelity.com/ftgw/fi/FINewsArticle?id=202508281047BENZINGAFULLNGTH47388921)