Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's $100k Crossroads: Bullish Hope vs. Bearish Signals

Bitcoin’s price movement remains under scrutiny as key support levels face retests, with analysts divided on whether the bull market has reached a critical juncture or is entering a consolidation phase. On the daily chart, Bitcoin has fallen below the $110,000 support area and the 100-day moving average, raising concerns about a potential breakdown to the $104,000 level [2]. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to hover below 50, signaling bearish momentum [2].

The market structure reveals conflicting signals, with some traders noting bearish divergences on the RSI while others identify emerging bullish divergences on shorter timeframes [1]. For example, weekly RSI data has shown a bullish divergence, suggesting that if the $100,000 support holds, a fresh all-time high could be within reach in the next 4–6 weeks [1]. This contrasts with the broader narrative that Bitcoin’s bull run is at risk of ending if the $100,000 level is breached [1].

On-chain data further complicates the outlook. Exchange reserves—coins held on exchanges for trading—have been declining since early 2024, indicating that more Bitcoin is being stored offline. This reduction in circulating supply could support long-term price gains, even as short-term volatility persists [2]. However, the recent pullback to a 2-month low has raised concerns about the depth of the correction, with Bitcoin forming four consecutive bearish weekly candlesticks [3]. Analysts are watching for a potential breakdown from a descending wedge pattern, which could signal a move to as low as $98,000 [3].

The wave count analysis also suggests that Bitcoin may be nearing the end of its corrective phase, with a bottom potentially forming near $104,000 [3]. If this level holds, a rebound could follow, but the likelihood of further downside remains high. Some traders are viewing the current pullback as an opportunity to accumulate positions around $102–104,000 [1], though caution is warranted given the bearish technical setup.

In the broader market context, Bitcoin’s performance has underperformed its previous four-year returns, though it still fared better than many other assets in August [1]. Year-to-date, Bitcoin has gained 40.50%, compared to gold’s 31.56% return [4], despite a current drawdown of -10.05% for Bitcoin versus zero for gold. The STKD Bitcoin & Gold ETF (BTGD) has mirrored this trend, with a 1.00% expense ratio and higher volatility than the SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM), which has a 0.18% expense ratio and lower drawdowns [4].

As Bitcoin consolidates near critical support levels, the next move will likely hinge on how traders and institutions react to the $100,000 threshold. A decisive break below this level could confirm the end of the bull cycle, while a successful retest might reignite bullish momentum. The RSI and Fibonacci retracement levels will be key to watch in the coming weeks as the market seeks direction.

Source:

[1] Bitcoin bull market over if $100k is lost trader (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-bull-market-over-if-100k-is-lost-trader)

[2] Bitcoin Price Analysis: Is BTC Set to Break Down Below 100k (https://cryptopotato.com/bitcoin-price-analysis-is-btc-set-to-break-down-below-100k/)

[3] Bitcoin (BTC) Price Slides to 2-Month Low But the Sell-Off (https://www.ccn.com/analysis/crypto/bitcoin-btc-price-low-sell-off/)

[4] BTGD vs. GLDM — ETF Comparison Tool (https://portfolioslab.com/tools/stock-comparison/BTGD/GLDM)