Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin at $100K: Will Bears Prevail or Trigger Holiday Rally?

Generated by AI AgentCoin WorldReviewed byAInvest News Editorial Team
Tuesday, Nov 4, 2025 2:10 pm ET1min read
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-

Bitcoin
fell below $100,000 amid macroeconomic uncertainty, institutional outflows, and technical breakdowns, losing 15% from its October peak.

- Fed rate-cut delays and U.S.-China tensions worsened risk-off sentiment, while crypto's lack of yield made it vulnerable to tighter monetary policy.

- Technical indicators show bearish momentum with RSI at 31.8 and MACD declining, as $800M was withdrawn from Bitcoin ETFs in a week.

- Analysts caution a potential "Santa Rally" if rates cut and liquidity improves, but warn $100,000 support and $113,000 resistance will determine next moves.

Bitcoin's price slid below $100,000 this week, reigniting bearish speculation as analysts highlight mounting pressures from macroeconomic uncertainty, institutional outflows, and technical breakdowns. The cryptocurrency, which peaked above $126,000 in early October, has since lost nearly 15%, trading near $108,000 as of Nov. 3, according to a

Crypto.News report
. The decline has sparked debates over whether the $88,000 realized price level—the average cost basis of active investors—will hold as a critical support zone, according to
CoinPedia analysis
.

The selloff accelerated after the Federal Reserve signaled it may delay rate cuts, dampening risk appetite across asset classes. "A stronger dollar and slower Fed easing have tilted the playing field against

Bitcoin
," said analysts at Crypto.News, noting that the absence of yield-bearing returns in crypto makes it vulnerable during periods of tight monetary policy. Compounding the pressure, U.S.-China trade tensions and geopolitical risks further exacerbated risk-off sentiment, triggering liquidations across digital assets.

Technical indicators also suggest momentum favors the bears. Bitcoin's recent breakdown below $104,000 and $106,000 supports confirmed a shift in short-term dynamics, with the 9-day and 21-day moving averages now trending below the 200-day SMA at $109,000, according to a

CryptoTicker analysis
. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on daily charts dipped to 31.8, signaling oversold conditions but lacking bullish divergence to hint at a reversal. Meanwhile, the MACD remains sharply negative, with widening histogram bars underscoring intensifying downward momentum.

Institutional activity has added to the downturn. Over $800 million was withdrawn from Bitcoin and

Ethereum
ETFs in the prior week as long-term holders trimmed positions, according to CoinPedia analysts. This follows a weak October, Bitcoin's first negative October since 2018, which closed down 3.6% amid broader market caution, as noted by Crypto.News.

Despite the near-term pessimism, some strategists caution against dismissing a potential "Santa Rally" in December. A sustained close above $113,000 could invalidate bearish scenarios and pave the way for a recovery if quantitative tightening ends and another rate cut materializes, boosting liquidity, CoinPedia analysts said. However, the path to a rally remains fraught: a breakdown below $100,000 could target $97,000, $92,870, and ultimately $85,000 — a 50% retracement from October's highs, according to CryptoTicker.

Market participants are now fixated on key levels. "Traders must monitor $113,000 resistance and $100,000 support closely," CoinPedia noted. "A clear breakout or breakdown from this range will likely determine Bitcoin's next major move."